Peeler E J, Murray A G, Thebault A, Brun E, Giovaninni A, Thrush M A
EpiCentre, Private Bag 11222, Institute of Veterinary and Animal Biomedical Sciences, Massey University, Palmerston North, New Zealand.
Prev Vet Med. 2007 Sep 14;81(1-3):3-20. doi: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2007.04.012. Epub 2007 Jun 1.
Risk analysis has only been regularly used in the management of aquatic animal health in recent years. The Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary measures (SPS) stimulated the application of risk analysis to investigate disease risks associated with international trade (import risk analysis-IRA). A majority (9 of 17) of the risk analyses reviewed were IRA. The other major focus has been the parasite of Atlantic salmon--Gyrodactylus salaris. Six studies investigated the spread of this parasite, between countries, rivers and from farmed to wild stocks, and clearly demonstrated that risk analysis can support aquatic animal health policy development, from international trade and biosecurity to disease interaction between wild and farmed stocks. Other applications of risk analysis included the spread of vertically transmitted pathogens and disease emergence in aquaculture. The Covello-Merkhofer, risk analysis model was most commonly used and appears to be a flexible tool not only for IRA but also the investigation of disease spread in other contexts. The limitations of the identified risk assessments were discussed. A majority were qualitative, partly due to the lack of data for quantitative analysis, and this, it can be argued, constrained their usefulness for trade purposes (i.e. setting appropriate sanitary measures); in other instances, a qualitative result was found to be adequate for decision making. A lack of information about the disease hazards of the large number of fish species traded is likely to constrain quantitative analysis for a number of years. The consequence assessment element of a risk analysis was most likely to be omitted, or limited in scope and depth, rarely extending beyond examining the evidence of susceptibility of farmed and wild species to the identified hazard. The reasons for this are discussed and recommendations made to develop guidelines for a consistent, systematic and multi-disciplinary approach to consequence assessment. Risk analysis has improved decision making in aquatic animal health management by providing a transparent method for using the available scientific information. The lack of data is the main constraint to the application of risk analysis in aquatic animal health. The identification of critical parameters is an important output from risk analysis models which should be used to prioritise research.
近年来，风险分析才开始在水生动物健康管理中得到定期使用。《实施卫生与植物卫生措施协定》（SPS协定）推动了风险分析的应用，以调查与国际贸易相关的疾病风险（进口风险分析——IRA）。所审查的风险分析中，大部分（17项中的9项）是IRA。另一个主要关注点是大西洋鲑鱼的寄生虫——鲑三代虫。六项研究调查了这种寄生虫在不同国家、河流之间以及从养殖种群到野生种群的传播情况，清楚地表明风险分析可以支持水生动物健康政策的制定，从国际贸易和生物安全到野生种群与养殖种群之间的疾病相互作用。风险分析的其他应用包括垂直传播病原体的传播以及水产养殖中疾病的出现。科韦洛-默克霍费尔风险分析模型是最常用的，并且似乎是一种灵活的工具，不仅适用于IRA，也适用于其他情况下疾病传播的调查。文中讨论了已确定的风险评估的局限性。大多数评估是定性的，部分原因是缺乏定量分析的数据，可以说，这限制了它们在贸易目的（即制定适当的卫生措施）方面的实用性；在其他情况下，发现定性结果足以用于决策。缺乏关于大量贸易鱼类疾病危害的信息可能会在数年里限制定量分析。风险分析的后果评估要素最有可能被省略，或者范围和深度有限，很少超出检查养殖和野生物种对已确定危害的易感性证据。文中讨论了造成这种情况的原因，并提出了建议，以制定关于后果评估的一致、系统和多学科方法的指南。风险分析通过提供一种利用现有科学信息的透明方法，改进了水生动物健康管理中的决策。数据的缺乏是风险分析在水生动物健康领域应用的主要制约因素。关键参数的识别是风险分析模型的一项重要成果，应用于确定研究的优先顺序。
