Al-Shorbaji Farah, Roche Benjamin, Gozlan Rodolphe, Britton Robert, Andreou Demetra
Faculty of Science and Technology, Bournemouth University, Fern Barrow, Talbot Campus, Poole, Dorset, BH12 5BB, UK.
Unit for Mathematical and Computer Modelling of Complex Systems, Institute of Research for Development, 34394 Montpellier, France.
Emerg Microbes Infect. 2016 May 11;5(5):e46. doi: 10.1038/emi.2016.46.
Non-native species have often been linked with introduction of novel pathogens that spill over into native communities, and the amplification of the prevalence of native parasites. In the case of introduced generalist pathogens, their disease epidemiology in the extant communities remains poorly understood. Here, Sphaerothecum destruens, a generalist fungal-like fish pathogen with bi-modal transmission (direct and environmental) was used to characterise the biological drivers responsible for disease emergence in temperate fish communities. A range of biotic factors relating to both the pathogen and the surrounding host communities were used in a novel susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to test how these factors affected disease epidemiology. These included: (i) pathogen prevalence in an introduced reservoir host (Pseudorasbora parva); (ii) the impact of reservoir host eradication and its timing and (iii) the density of potential hosts in surrounding communities and their connectedness. These were modelled across 23 combinations and indicated that the spill-over of pathogen propagules via environmental transmission resulted in rapid establishment in adjacent fish communities (<1 year). Although disease dynamics were initially driven by environmental transmission in these communities, once sufficient numbers of native hosts were infected, the disease dynamics were driven by intra-species transmission. Subsequent eradication of the introduced host, irrespective of its timing (after one, two or three years), had limited impact on the long-term disease dynamics among local fish communities. These outputs reinforced the importance of rapid detection and eradication of non-native species, in particular when such species are identified as healthy reservoirs of a generalist pathogen.
外来物种常常与新病原体的引入相关联,这些病原体扩散到本地群落中,并导致本地寄生虫患病率上升。对于引入的泛性病原体而言,其在现存群落中的疾病流行病学仍知之甚少。在此,球形毁灭霉,一种具有双模式传播(直接传播和环境传播)的泛生性鱼类真菌病原体,被用于确定导致温带鱼类群落疾病出现的生物学驱动因素。一系列与病原体和周围宿主群落相关的生物因素被用于一种新的易感-暴露-感染-恢复(SEIR)模型,以测试这些因素如何影响疾病流行病学。这些因素包括:(i)引入的储存宿主(麦穗鱼)中的病原体患病率;(ii)储存宿主根除的影响及其时间,以及(iii)周围群落中潜在宿主的密度及其连通性。这些因素通过23种组合进行建模,结果表明病原体繁殖体通过环境传播的溢出导致其在相邻鱼类群落中迅速定殖(<1年)。尽管在这些群落中疾病动态最初由环境传播驱动,但一旦足够数量的本地宿主被感染,疾病动态就由种内传播驱动。随后对引入宿主的根除,无论其时间(一年、两年或三年后)如何,对当地鱼类群落的长期疾病动态影响有限。这些结果强化了快速检测和根除外来物种的重要性,特别是当此类物种被确定为泛性病原体的健康储存宿主时。