O'Lorcain Piaras, Comber Harry
National Cancer Registry, Elm Court, Cork, Ireland.
Eur J Cancer Prev. 2007 Aug;16(4):328-33. doi: 10.1097/01.cej.0000236248.63489.4c.
The objective of this analysis was to predict average world age-standardized mortality rates per person-years (100,000 person-years) and numbers of prostate cancer deaths in Ireland for the years 2005, 2010 and 2015. Poisson linear and log-linear regression models of Irish prostate cancer mortality data for the years 1950-2002 were used to predict trends for the whole population, for men aged 0-64 and 50-74 years. The prostate cancer world age-standardized mortality rate in 2015 is predicted to remain unchanged from the average recorded in 1998-2002, while, because of population growth, the number of deaths is predicted to increase. In persons under 65 years of age, the world age-standardized mortality rate is expected to increase, but the number of deaths in this age group is expected to nearly double between 2002 and 2015. Similarly, the world age-standardized mortality rate for men aged 50-74 years is predicted to rise with the number of deaths in this age group expected to increase sharply. The historical evidence predicts a small increase of age-adjusted prostate cancer mortality rates in Ireland and only in the age groups of 0-64 and 50-74 years in the next 10 years, along with a continuing marked increase in number of deaths due to demographic change.
本分析的目的是预测2005年、2010年和2015年爱尔兰人均年（每10万人年）的世界年龄标准化死亡率以及前列腺癌死亡人数。利用1950 - 2002年爱尔兰前列腺癌死亡率数据的泊松线性和对数线性回归模型，预测了全体人口、0 - 64岁男性以及50 - 74岁男性的趋势。预计2015年前列腺癌的世界年龄标准化死亡率将保持在1998 - 2002年记录的平均水平不变，而由于人口增长，预计死亡人数将会增加。在65岁以下人群中，预计世界年龄标准化死亡率将会上升，不过该年龄组的死亡人数预计在2002年至2015年间将几乎翻倍。同样，预计50 - 74岁男性的世界年龄标准化死亡率将会上升，该年龄组的死亡人数预计将大幅增加。历史证据预测，未来10年爱尔兰年龄调整后的前列腺癌死亡率将略有上升，且仅在0 - 64岁和50 - 74岁年龄组出现上升，同时由于人口结构变化，死亡人数将持续显著增加。
