Mortality predictions for colon and anorectal cancer for Ireland, 2003-17.

OBJECTIVE

Colorectal cancer mortality predictions for Ireland are presented for all ages and for the age group 0-64 years.

METHODS

Log and log-linear Poisson regression modelling was fitted to colorectal cancer mortality data for each year between 1950 and 2002 to predict average European age standardized mortality rates (EASMRs) per 100,000 person years (100,000 PY(-1)) and average numbers of deaths.

RESULTS

EASMRs for colon cancer are predicted to fall to 17.3 100,000 PY(-1) (95%PI 14.4, 20.2) in men and to 8.4 100,000 PY(-1) (95%PI 6.9, 10.2) in women by 2013-17. EASMRs for anorectal cancer are also predicted to fall to 8.0 100,000 PY(-1) (95%PI 6.6, 9.5) in men and to 3.0 100,000 PY(-1) (95%PI 2.3, 3.8) in women by this time. Truncated EASMRs for colon cancer for those aged between 0 and 64 years are predicted over the next 15 years to fall from their current levels to 4.4 100,000 PY(-1) (95%PI 3.0, 5.8) in men and to 2.3 100,000 PY(-1) (95%PI 1.5, 3.2) in women. For anorectal cancer, truncated EASMRs for those aged between 0 and 64 years are also predicted over the next 15 years to fall from their current levels to 2.9 100,000 PY(-1) (95%PI 2.0, 3.8) in men and to 0.9 100,000 PY(-1) (95%PI 0.4, 1.3) in women.

CONCLUSIONS

Ireland currently has one of the highest colorectal mortality rates in the developed world but recent downward trends, the advent of new screening tests and well targeted public health promotion programmes may lead to further reductions.