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远程感知研究中的信息与不确定性。

Information and uncertainty in remote perception research.

作者信息

Dunne B J, Jahn R G

出版信息

Explore (NY). 2007 May-Jun;3(3):254-69, 343-4. doi: 10.1016/j.explore.2007.03.010.

DOI:10.1016/j.explore.2007.03.010
PMID:17560347
Abstract

This article has four purposes: 1) to present for the first time in archival form all results of some 25 years of remote perception research at this laboratory; 2) to describe all of the analytical scoring methods developed over the course of this program to quantify the amount of anomalous information acquired in the experiments; 3) to display a remarkable anti-correlation between the objective specificity of those methods and the anomalous yield of the experiments; and 4) to discuss the phenomenological and pragmatic implications of this complementarity. The formal database comprises 653 experimental trials performed over several phases of investigation. The scoring methods involve various arrays of descriptor queries that can be addressed to both the physical targets and the percipients' description thereof, the responses to which provide the basis for numerical evaluation and statistical assessment of the degree of anomalous information acquired. Twenty-four such recipes have been employed, with queries posed in binary, ternary, quaternary, and ten-level distributive formats. Thus treated, the database yields a composite z-score against chance of 5.418 (p = 3 x 10(-8), one-tailed). Numerous subsidiary analyses agree that these overall results are not significantly affected by any of the secondary protocol parameters tested, or by variations in descriptor effectiveness, possible participant response biases, target distance from the percipient, or time interval between perception effort and agent target visitation. However, over the course of the program there has been a striking diminution of the anomalous yield that appears to be associated with the participants' growing attention to, and dependence upon, the progressively more detailed descriptor formats and with the corresponding reduction in the content of the accompanying free-response transcripts. The possibility that increased emphasis on objective quantification of the phenomenon somehow may have inhibited its inherently subjective expression is explored in several contexts, ranging from contemporary signal processing technologies to ancient divination traditions. An intrinsic complementarity is suggested between the analytical and intuitive aspects of the remote perception process that, like its more familiar counterpart in quantum science, brings with it an inescapable uncertainty that limits the extent to which such anomalous effects can be simultaneously produced and evaluated.

摘要

本文有四个目的

1)首次以存档形式呈现本实验室约25年的遥感研究的所有结果;2)描述在该项目过程中开发的所有分析评分方法,以量化实验中获取的异常信息的数量;3)展示这些方法的客观特异性与实验异常产量之间的显著反相关性;4)讨论这种互补性的现象学和实际意义。正式数据库包括在几个调查阶段进行的653次实验试验。评分方法涉及各种描述符查询阵列,这些查询既可以针对物理目标也可以针对感知者对其的描述,对这些查询的回答为获取的异常信息程度的数值评估和统计评估提供了基础。已经采用了24种这样的方法,查询以二进制、三进制、四进制和十级分布格式提出。经过这样处理,数据库得出的综合z分数相对于机遇为5.418(p = 3×10^(-8),单尾)。大量的辅助分析一致认为,这些总体结果不受所测试的任何次要协议参数的显著影响,也不受描述符有效性的变化、可能的参与者反应偏差、目标与感知者的距离或感知努力与主体目标访问之间的时间间隔的影响。然而,在该项目过程中,异常产量有显著下降,这似乎与参与者对逐渐更详细的描述符格式的日益关注和依赖以及随之而来的自由反应记录内容的相应减少有关。从当代信号处理技术到古代占卜传统等多个背景下探讨了某种程度上对现象的客观量化的更多强调可能以某种方式抑制其固有主观表达的可能性。遥感过程的分析和直观方面之间存在一种内在的互补性,就像它在量子科学中更常见的对应物一样,带来了一种不可避免的不确定性,这种不确定性限制了这种异常效应能够同时产生和评估的程度。

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