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非凡的主张需要非凡的证据:非局部感知的案例,对证据的经典与贝叶斯式审视

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence: the case of non-local perception, a classical and bayesian review of evidences.

作者信息

Tressoldi Patrizio E

机构信息

Dipartimento di Psicologia Generale, Università di Padova Padova, Italy.

出版信息

Front Psychol. 2011 Jun 10;2:117. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2011.00117. eCollection 2011.

Abstract

Starting from the famous phrase "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence," we will present the evidence supporting the concept that human visual perception may have non-local properties, in other words, that it may operate beyond the space and time constraints of sensory organs, in order to discuss which criteria can be used to define evidence as extraordinary. This evidence has been obtained from seven databases which are related to six different protocols used to test the reality and the functioning of non-local perception, analyzed using both a frequentist and a new Bayesian meta-analysis statistical procedure. According to a frequentist meta-analysis, the null hypothesis can be rejected for all six protocols even if the effect sizes range from 0.007 to 0.28. According to Bayesian meta-analysis, the Bayes factors provides strong evidence to support the alternative hypothesis (H1) over the null hypothesis (H0), but only for three out of the six protocols. We will discuss whether quantitative psychology can contribute to defining the criteria for the acceptance of new scientific ideas in order to avoid the inconclusive controversies between supporters and opponents.

摘要

从著名的“非凡的主张需要非凡的证据”这句话出发,我们将展示支持人类视觉感知可能具有非局部属性这一概念的证据,换句话说,即它可能超越感觉器官的时空限制进行运作,以便讨论哪些标准可用于将证据定义为非凡的。该证据来自七个数据库,这些数据库与用于测试非局部感知的真实性和功能的六种不同方案相关,并使用频率主义和新的贝叶斯元分析统计程序进行了分析。根据频率主义元分析,即使效应大小在0.007至0.28之间,所有六个方案的零假设都可以被拒绝。根据贝叶斯元分析,贝叶斯因子为支持备择假设(H1)而非零假设(H0)提供了有力证据,但仅适用于六个方案中的三个。我们将讨论定量心理学是否有助于定义接受新科学观念的标准,以避免支持者和反对者之间无定论的争议。

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