Ensemble climate simulations using a fully coupled ocean-troposphere-stratosphere general circulation model.

Long-term transient simulations are carried out in an initial condition ensemble mode using a global coupled climate model which includes comprehensive ocean and stratosphere components. This model, which is run for the years 1860-2100, allows the investigation of the troposphere-stratosphere interactions and the importance of representing the middle atmosphere in climate-change simulations. The model simulates the present-day climate (1961-2000) realistically in the troposphere, stratosphere and ocean. The enhanced stratospheric resolution leads to the simulation of sudden stratospheric warmings; however, their frequency is underestimated by a factor of 2 with respect to observations.In projections of the future climate using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change special report on emissions scenarios A2, an increased tropospheric wave forcing counteracts the radiative cooling in the middle atmosphere caused by the enhanced greenhouse gas concentration. This leads to a more dynamically active, warmer stratosphere compared with present-day simulations, and to the doubling of the number of stratospheric warmings. The associated changes in the mean zonal wind patterns lead to a southward displacement of the Northern Hemisphere storm track in the climate-change signal.