Reznik Gayle L, Shoffner Dave, Weaver David A
Office of Retirement Policy, Office of Policy, Social Security Administration, USA.
Soc Secur Bull. 2005;66(4):37-45.
Due to demographic changes, the U.S. Social Security system will face financial challenges in the near future. Declining fertility rates and increasing life expectancies are causing the U.S. population to age. Today 12 percent of the total population is aged 65 or older, but by 2080, it will be 23 percent. At the same time, the working-age population is shrinking from 60 percent today to a projected 54 percent in 2080. Consequently, the Social Security system is experiencing a declining worker-to-beneficiary ratio, which will fall from 3.3 in 2005 to 2.1 in 2040 (the year in which the Social Security trust fund is projected to be exhausted). This presents a significant challenge to policymakers. One policy option that could help keep the Social Security system solvent is to reduce retirement benefits, either by raising the normal retirement age or through life expectancy indexing, to reflect the fact that people are living longer. However, these reductions in benefits have the potential to harm economically vulnerable retirees. Other options, such as progressive price indexing proposals, explicitly protect the retirement benefits of low lifetime earners. Still other options would seek to raise additional revenue for the system. Since individuals will be living longer in retirement, many policymakers believe it is important to encourage older workers to delay retirement so that they can maintain a quality standard of living throughout their retirement. One proposal to encourage continued work would be to increase the early eligibility age for Social Security benefits from age 62 to age 65. This could possibly hurt individuals who need to retire from physically demanding jobs but would ensure that people receive higher benefit amounts once they were able to fully retire. Other proposals that could promote more work at older ages include expanding phased retirement options and reforming pension and defined contribution systems to create incentives to work and save.
由于人口结构的变化，美国社会保障系统在不久的将来将面临财政挑战。生育率下降和预期寿命延长导致美国人口老龄化。如今，65岁及以上人口占总人口的12%，但到2080年，这一比例将达到23%。与此同时，劳动年龄人口正在减少，从如今的60%降至预计2080年的54%。因此，社会保障系统的工作者与受益人的比例在下降，将从2005年的3.3降至2040年的2.1（预计社会保障信托基金将在这一年耗尽）。这给政策制定者带来了重大挑战。一个有助于维持社会保障系统偿付能力的政策选择是削减退休福利，要么提高正常退休年龄，要么通过预期寿命指数化，以反映人们寿命延长的事实。然而，这些福利削减有可能伤害经济上脆弱的退休人员。其他选择，如渐进式物价指数化提议，则明确保护低终身收入者的退休福利。还有其他选择将寻求为该系统筹集额外收入。由于个人退休后将活得更长，许多政策制定者认为鼓励老年工人延迟退休很重要，这样他们在整个退休期间都能维持高质量的生活水平。一项鼓励继续工作的提议是将社会保障福利的提前领取年龄从62岁提高到65岁。这可能会伤害那些需要从体力要求高的工作中退休的个人，但会确保人们一旦能够完全退休就能获得更高的福利金额。其他可以促进老年人更多工作的提议包括扩大阶段性退休选择，以及改革养老金和固定缴款系统，以创造工作和储蓄的激励措施。
