Pouillot Régis, Miconnet Nicolas, Afchain Anne-Laure, Delignette-Muller Marie Laure, Beaufort Annie, Rosso Laurent, Denis Jean-Baptiste, Cornu Marie
Agence Française de Sécurité Sanitaire des Ailments (Afssa), Maisons-Alfort, France.
Risk Anal. 2007 Jun;27(3):683-700. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00921.x.
A quantitative assessment of the exposure to Listeria monocytogenes from cold-smoked salmon (CSS) consumption in France is developed. The general framework is a second-order (or two-dimensional) Monte Carlo simulation, which characterizes the uncertainty and variability of the exposure estimate. The model takes into account the competitive bacterial growth between L. monocytogenes and the background competitive flora from the end of the production line to the consumer phase. An original algorithm is proposed to integrate this growth in conditions of varying temperature. As part of a more general project led by the French Food Safety Agency (Afssa), specific data were acquired and modeled for this quantitative exposure assessment model, particularly time-temperature profiles, prevalence data, and contamination-level data. The sensitivity analysis points out the main influence of the mean temperature in household refrigerators and the prevalence of contaminated CSS on the exposure level. The outputs of this model can be used as inputs for further risk assessment.
开展了一项对法国食用冷熏三文鱼（CSS）所致单核细胞增生李斯特菌暴露量的定量评估。总体框架是二阶（或二维）蒙特卡洛模拟，其表征了暴露估计值的不确定性和变异性。该模型考虑了从生产线末端到消费阶段单核细胞增生李斯特菌与背景竞争性菌群之间的竞争性细菌生长。提出了一种原始算法以整合不同温度条件下的这种生长。作为法国食品安全局（Afssa）牵头的一个更广泛项目的一部分，获取了特定数据并为该定量暴露评估模型进行建模，特别是时间-温度曲线、流行率数据和污染水平数据。敏感性分析指出家用冰箱平均温度和受污染CSS的流行率对暴露水平的主要影响。该模型的输出结果可作为进一步风险评估的输入。
