Tuominen Pirkko, Ranta Jukka, Maijala Riitta
Food Safety Authority (EVIRA), Risk Assessment Unit, Mustialankatu 3, 00790 Helsinki, Finland.
Int J Food Microbiol. 2007 Aug 15;118(1):35-51. doi: 10.1016/j.ijfoodmicro.2007.05.013. Epub 2007 Jun 13.
The Finnish Salmonella Control Programme and the special guarantees (SG) of import concerning Salmonella in the beef production chain were examined within the risk analysis framework. The appropriate level of protection (ALOP de facto since not referred to as ALOP in regulation), performance objectives (PO), and microbiological criteria (MC) were identified along the beef production chain. A quantitative microbiological risk assessment (QMRA) model using the Bayesian probabilistic method was developed for the beef chain to evaluate the capability of different POs to contribute to the ALOP. The influence of SGs was studied as an intervention protecting Finnish consumers. The QMRA made it possible to translate an ALOP without a stated food safety objective (FSO) to POs when implemented for both ready-to-eat (RTE) and non-RTE products. According to the results, the Finnish ALOP de facto for beef, beef preparations and products (10 human Salmonella cases/100,000) was reached in all of the years 1996-2004. However, if the prevalence at the slaughter, domestic cut beef, and retail levels would increase to the level of POs set (maximum 1%), the ALOP de facto would be exceeded by a factor of roughly two. On the other hand, the zero tolerance applied to MCs would keep the true Salmonella prevalence at production steps with POs clearly below 1%, and the ALOP would then be achievable. The influence of SGs on the total exposure was so small (average 0.1% added to the total prevalence of beef-derived foods at retail) that their relevance may be doubted with the current amount and Salmonella prevalence in beef-derived imports. On the other hand, a change in import profile could increase the protective effect of the SGs. Although practical follow-up has to be carried out as apparent prevalences, the objectives and criteria should be estimated as true prevalences and incidences with quantified uncertainties in order to achieve a sound, transparent scientific-based understanding of the risk. The QMRA model developed here provided a useful tool for studying the connection between the ALOP and other targets in the production chain.
在风险分析框架内，对芬兰沙门氏菌控制计划以及牛肉生产链中有关沙门氏菌的进口特别保障措施（SG）进行了审查。沿着牛肉生产链确定了适当的保护水平（实际上是适当保护水平，因为法规中未称为适当保护水平）、性能目标（PO）和微生物标准（MC）。为牛肉链开发了一种使用贝叶斯概率方法的定量微生物风险评估（QMRA）模型，以评估不同性能目标对实现适当保护水平的贡献能力。研究了特别保障措施作为保护芬兰消费者的一种干预措施的影响。当对即食（RTE）和非即食产品都实施定量微生物风险评估时，该评估能够将没有明确食品安全目标（FSO）的适当保护水平转化为性能目标。根据结果，在1996 - 2004年的所有年份中，芬兰牛肉、牛肉制品和产品的实际适当保护水平（每10万人中有10例人类沙门氏菌病例）均得以实现。然而，如果屠宰、国内切块牛肉和零售层面的患病率增加到设定的性能目标水平（最高1%），实际适当保护水平将被超过约两倍。另一方面，对微生物标准采用零容忍将使生产步骤中的真实沙门氏菌患病率明显低于1%，从而实现适当保护水平。特别保障措施对总暴露的影响非常小（零售时牛肉衍生食品的总患病率平均增加0.1%），鉴于目前牛肉衍生进口产品的数量和沙门氏菌患病率，其相关性可能受到质疑。另一方面，进口情况的变化可能会增加特别保障措施的保护效果。尽管实际跟踪必须基于表观患病率进行，但目标和标准应以真实患病率和发病率来估计，并带有量化的不确定性，以便对风险有一个合理、透明的基于科学的理解。这里开发的定量微生物风险评估模型为研究适当保护水平与生产链中其他目标之间的联系提供了一个有用的工具。
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