青少年能预测重大生活事件吗？
Can adolescents predict significant life events?
作者信息
de Bruin Wändi Bruine, Parker Andrew M, Fischhoff Baruch
机构信息
Department of Social and Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213-3890, USA.
出版信息
J Adolesc Health. 2007 Aug;41(2):208-10. doi: 10.1016/j.jadohealth.2007.03.014.
Abstract
We examine whether adolescents' probability judgments for significant life events are predictive and accurate. We find significant correlations with actual experiences, reported on successive waves of a national survey. Mean probability judgments approximated observed outcome rates, or were optimistic, except that adolescents greatly overestimated their probability of dying prematurely.
摘要
我们研究了青少年对重大生活事件的概率判断是否具有预测性和准确性。我们发现，在一项全国性调查的连续几轮中报告的实际经历与之存在显著相关性。平均概率判断接近观察到的结果率，或者较为乐观，只是青少年大大高估了自己过早死亡的概率。
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