Sun F, Chen J, Tong Q, Zeng S
Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, Tsinghua University, 100084 Beijing, China.
Water Res. 2008 Jan;42(1-2):229-37. doi: 10.1016/j.watres.2007.07.002. Epub 2007 Aug 6.
In order to understand the dual impact of both deteriorating water resources and stringent water quality regulations on the performance of conventional waterworks on a nationwide level, a methodology of a risk-based screening analysis is developed and further applied to evaluate the natural organic matter (NOM) regulation in the new standards for drinking water quality. Due to the large number of drinking water sources and conventional waterworks, as well as the lack of detailed field observations in China, such an analysis is wholly based on a validated conceptual model. The performance risk of conventional waterworks in compliance with the new regulation is estimated within the framework of risk assessment through Monte Carlo simulation to account for the uncertainties associated with model parameters, source water quality and operation conditions across different waterworks. A screening analysis is simultaneously performed using a task-based Hornberger-Spear-Young algorithm to identify the critical operation parameters that determine the performance risk, based on which potential strategies to manage the performance risk are proposed and evaluated. The effects of the model parameter uncertainties on the simulation results are also discussed.
为了在全国范围内了解水资源恶化和严格水质法规对传统水厂运行的双重影响，开发了一种基于风险的筛选分析方法，并进一步应用于评估饮用水水质新标准中的天然有机物（NOM）规定。由于中国饮用水水源和传统水厂数量众多，且缺乏详细的实地观测，这种分析完全基于一个经过验证的概念模型。在风险评估框架内，通过蒙特卡洛模拟估计传统水厂符合新规定的运行风险，以考虑不同水厂模型参数、水源水质和运行条件相关的不确定性。同时使用基于任务的霍恩伯格 - 斯皮尔 - 杨算法进行筛选分析，以识别决定运行风险的关键运行参数，并据此提出和评估管理运行风险的潜在策略。还讨论了模型参数不确定性对模拟结果的影响。
