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大型水坝对疟疾风险的影响:埃塞俄比亚的科卡水库

Effect of a large dam on malaria risk: the Koka reservoir in Ethiopia.

作者信息

Lautze Jonathan, McCartney Matthew, Kirshen Paul, Olana Dereje, Jayasinghe Gayathree, Spielman Andrew

机构信息

Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts, USA.

出版信息

Trop Med Int Health. 2007 Aug;12(8):982-9. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3156.2007.01878.x.

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether the Koka water reservoir in the Rift Valley of Ethiopia contributes to the malaria burden in its vicinity.

METHODS

Frequency of malaria diagnosis in fever clinics was correlated with distance of residence from the margin of the Koka reservoir. Annual as well as seasonal malaria case rates were determined in cohorts residing < 3, 3-6 and 6-9 km from the reservoir. Plasmodium falciparum risk was compared with that of Plasmodium vivax. A multiple variable regression model was used to explore associations between malaria case rates and proximity to the reservoir, controlling for other suspected influences on malaria transmission.

RESULTS

Malaria case rates among people living within 3 km of the reservoir are about 1.5 times as great as for those living between 3 and 6 km from the reservoir and 2.3 times as great for those living 6-9 km from the reservoir. Proximity to the reservoir is associated with greater malaria case rates in periods of more intense transmission. Plasmodium falciparum is most prevalent in communities located close to the reservoir and P. vivax in more distant villages. The presence of the reservoir, coupled with inter-annual climatic variations, explains more than half of the region's variability in malaria case rates.

CONCLUSION

Large water impoundments are likely to exacerbate malaria transmission in malaria-endemic parts of sub-Saharan Africa.

摘要

目的

确定埃塞俄比亚裂谷地区的科卡水库是否会加重其周边地区的疟疾负担。

方法

发热门诊的疟疾诊断频率与居住地到科卡水库边缘的距离相关。对居住在距离水库小于3公里、3 - 6公里和6 - 9公里的人群队列,分别测定其年度和季节性疟疾病例率。比较恶性疟原虫和间日疟原虫的风险。使用多变量回归模型来探究疟疾病例率与靠近水库之间的关联,并控制其他对疟疾传播有潜在影响的因素。

结果

居住在距离水库3公里范围内的人群疟疾病例率约为居住在距离水库3至6公里人群的1.5倍,是居住在距离水库6至9公里人群的2.3倍。在传播更强烈的时期,靠近水库与更高的疟疾病例率相关。恶性疟原虫在靠近水库的社区最为普遍,而间日疟原虫在较远的村庄更为常见。水库的存在,再加上年际气候变化,解释了该地区疟疾病例率变异性的一半以上。

结论

大型蓄水设施可能会加剧撒哈拉以南非洲疟疾流行地区的疟疾传播。

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