Science. 1994 Apr 8;264(5156):243-5. doi: 10.1126/science.264.5156.243.
Records of glacier fluctuations compiled by the World Glacier Monitoring Service can be used to derive an independent estimate of global warming during the last 100 years. Records of different glaciers are made comparable by a two-step scaling procedure: one allowing for differences in glacier geometry, the other for differences in climate sensitivity. The retreat of glaciers during the last 100 years appears to be coherent over the globe. On the basis of modeling of the climate sensitivity of glaciers, the observed glacier retreat can be explained by a linear warming trend of 0.66 kelvin per century.
世界冰川监测服务机构编制的冰川波动记录可用于得出过去 100 年全球变暖的独立估计值。通过两步缩放程序使不同冰川的记录具有可比性:一个允许冰川几何形状的差异,另一个允许气候敏感性的差异。在过去 100 年中,全球范围内冰川的退缩似乎是一致的。根据对冰川气候敏感性的建模,观测到的冰川退缩可以用每世纪线性升温 0.66 开尔文的趋势来解释。