Science. 1992 Oct 2;258(5079):115-7. doi: 10.1126/science.258.5079.115.
Recent field programs on glaciers have supplied information that makes simulation of glacier mass balance with meteorological models meaningful. An estimate of world-wide glacier sensitivity based on a modeling study of 12 selected glaciers situated in widely differing climatic regimes shows that for a uniform 1 K warming the area-weighted glacier mass balance will decrease by 0.40 meter per year. This corresponds to a sea-level rise of 0.58 millimeter per year, a value significantly less than earlier estimates.
最近的冰川实地考察项目提供了信息，使得利用气象模型来模拟冰川质量平衡变得有意义。根据对分布在气候条件迥异的 12 个选定冰川的建模研究，对全球冰川敏感性进行了估计，结果表明，在均一升温 1 K 的情况下，加权平均冰川质量平衡将每年减少 0.40 米。这对应海平面每年上升 0.58 毫米，这一数值明显低于早期的估计值。
