Hawkins Bradford A, Albuquerque Fabio S, Araujo Miguel B, Beck Jan, Bini Luis Mauricio, Cabrero-Sañudo Francisco J, Castro-Parga Isabel, Diniz-Filho José Alexandre Felizola, Ferrer-Castan Dolores, Field Richard, Gómez José F, Hortal Joaquin, Kerr Jeremy T, Kitching Ian J, León-Cortés Jorge L, Lobo Jorge M, Montoya Daniel, Moreno Juan Carlos, Olalla-Tárraga Miguel A, Pausas Juli G, Qian Hong, Rahbek Carsten, Rodríguez Miguel A, Sanders Nathan J, Williams Paul
Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Irvine, California 92697, USA.
Ecology. 2007 Aug;88(8):1877-88. doi: 10.1890/06-1444.1.
We compiled 46 broadscale data sets of species richness for a wide range of terrestrial plant, invertebrate, and ectothermic vertebrate groups in all parts of the world to test the ability of metabolic theory to account for observed diversity gradients. The theory makes two related predictions: (1) In-transformed richness is linearly associated with a linear, inverse transformation of annual temperature, and (2) the slope of the relationship is near -0.65. Of the 46 data sets, 14 had no significant relationship; of the remaining 32, nine were linear, meeting prediction 1. Model I (ordinary least squares, OLS) and model II (reduced major axis, RMA) regressions then tested the linear slopes against prediction 2. In the 23 data sets having nonlinear relationships between richness and temperature, split-line regression divided the data into linear components, and regressions were done on each component to test prediction 2 for subsets of the data. Of the 46 data sets analyzed in their entirety using OLS regression, one was consistent with metabolic theory (meeting both predictions), and one was possibly consistent. Using RMA regression, no data sets were consistent. Of 67 analyses of prediction 2 using OLS regression on all linear data sets and subsets, two were consistent with the prediction, and four were possibly consistent. Using RMA regression, one was consistent (albeit weakly), and four were possibly consistent. We also found that the relationship between richness and temperature is both taxonomically and geographically conditional, and there is no evidence for a universal response of diversity to temperature. Meta-analyses confirmed significant heterogeneity in slopes among data sets, and the combined slopes across studies were significantly lower than the range of slopes predicted by metabolic theory based on both OLS and RMA regressions. We conclude that metabolic theory, as currently formulated, is a poor predictor of observed diversity gradients in most terrestrial systems.
我们汇编了46个关于全球各地广泛的陆生植物、无脊椎动物和变温脊椎动物类群物种丰富度的大规模数据集，以检验代谢理论解释观察到的多样性梯度的能力。该理论做出了两个相关预测：（1）对数值转换后的丰富度与年平均温度的线性、倒数转换呈线性相关，（2）这种关系的斜率接近-0.65。在这46个数据集中，14个没有显著关系；在其余32个数据集中，9个呈线性关系，符合预测1。然后，模型I（普通最小二乘法，OLS）和模型II（主轴缩减法，RMA）回归针对预测2检验线性斜率。在丰富度与温度之间存在非线性关系的23个数据集中，分段回归将数据划分为线性成分，并对每个成分进行回归，以检验数据子集的预测2。使用OLS回归对46个数据集进行整体分析时，有一个与代谢理论一致（符合两个预测），还有一个可能一致。使用RMA回归时，没有数据集符合。在对所有线性数据集和子集使用OLS回归进行的67次预测2分析中，有两次与预测一致，四次可能一致。使用RMA回归时，有一次一致（尽管不太明显），四次可能一致。我们还发现，丰富度与温度之间的关系在分类学和地理上都是有条件的，没有证据表明多样性对温度有普遍响应。荟萃分析证实了各数据集斜率存在显著异质性，并且基于OLS和RMA回归，跨研究的综合斜率显著低于代谢理论预测的斜率范围。我们得出结论，按照目前的表述，代谢理论在大多数陆地系统中对观察到的多样性梯度的预测能力较差。
