Van den Brink Paul J, Baveco J M Hans, Verboom Jana, Heimbach Fred
Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands.
Environ Toxicol Chem. 2007 Oct;26(10):2226-36. doi: 10.1897/07-022R.1.
In the present study we present a population model (Metapopulation model for Assessing Spatial and Temporal Effects of Pesticides [MASTEP]) describing the effects on and recovery of the waterlouse Asellus aquaticus after exposure to a fast-acting, nonpersistent insecticide as a result of spray drift in pond, ditch, and stream scenarios. The model used the spatial and temporal distribution of the exposure in different treatment conditions as an input parameter. A dose-response relation derived from a hypothetical mesocosm study was used to link the exposure with the effects. The modeled landscape was represented as a lattice of 1- by 1-m cells. The model included processes of mortality of A. aquaticus, life history, random walk between cells, density dependence of population regulation, and, in the case of the stream scenario, medium-distance drift of A. aquaticus due to flow. All parameter estimates were based on expert judgment and the results of a thorough review of published information on the ecology of A. aquaticus. In the treated part of the water body, the ditch scenario proved to be the worst-case situation, due to the absence of drift of A. aquaticus. Effects in the pond scenario were smaller because the pond was exposed from one side, allowing migration from the other, less contaminated side. The results of the stream scenario showed the importance of including drift for the population recovery in the 100-m stretch of the stream that was treated. It should be noted, however, that the inclusion of drift had a negligible impact on numbers in the stream as a whole (600 m).
在本研究中，我们提出了一种种群模型（用于评估农药时空效应的集合种群模型[MASTEP]），该模型描述了在池塘、沟渠和溪流环境中，由于喷雾漂移导致水虱（Asellus aquaticus）接触速效、非持久性杀虫剂后，水虱所受到的影响以及恢复情况。该模型将不同处理条件下暴露的时空分布作为输入参数。利用从假设的中宇宙研究得出的剂量-反应关系，将暴露与影响联系起来。模拟的景观表示为1米×1米的网格单元。该模型包括水虱的死亡过程、生活史、细胞间随机游走、种群调节的密度依赖性，以及在溪流环境中，水虱因水流而产生的中距离漂移。所有参数估计均基于专家判断以及对已发表的有关水虱生态学信息的全面审查结果。在水体的处理区域，由于水虱没有漂移，沟渠环境被证明是最坏的情况。池塘环境中的影响较小，因为池塘仅一侧受到暴露，使得水虱能够从另一侧受污染较轻的区域迁移过来。溪流环境的结果表明，对于所处理的100米长溪流段中的种群恢复而言，纳入漂移因素非常重要。然而，需要注意的是，纳入漂移因素对整个600米长的溪流中的数量影响可忽略不计。
