Montangero Agnès, Belevi Hasan
Department of Water and Sanitation in Developing Countries, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, Eawag, P.O. Box 611, 8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland.
J Environ Manage. 2008 Sep;88(4):1538-51. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2007.07.033. Epub 2007 Sep 14.
The material flow analysis method can be used to assess the impact of environmental sanitation systems on resource consumption and environmental pollution. However, given the limited access to reliable data, application of this data-intensive method in developing countries may be difficult. This paper presents an approach allowing to develop material flow models despite limited data availability. Application of an iterative procedure is of key importance: model parameter values should first be assessed on the basis of a literature review and by eliciting expert judgement. If model outputs are not plausible, sensitive input parameters should be reassessed more accurately. Moreover, model parameters can be expressed as probability distributions and variable uncertainty estimated by using Monte Carlo simulation. The impact of environmental sanitation systems on the phosphorus load discharged into surface water in Hanoi, Vietnam, is simulated by applying the proposed approach.
物质流分析方法可用于评估环境卫生系统对资源消耗和环境污染的影响。然而，鉴于获取可靠数据的机会有限，在发展中国家应用这种数据密集型方法可能会有困难。本文提出了一种方法，即使在数据有限的情况下也能建立物质流模型。应用迭代程序至关重要：模型参数值首先应在文献综述的基础上并通过征求专家意见来评估。如果模型输出不合理，则应更准确地重新评估敏感输入参数。此外，模型参数可以表示为概率分布，并通过蒙特卡罗模拟估计可变不确定性。通过应用所提出的方法，模拟了越南河内环境卫生系统对排入地表水的磷负荷的影响。
