Naing Wutyi, Harada Hidenori, Fujii Shigeo, Hmwe Chaw Su Su
Graduate School of Asian and African Area Studies, Kyoto University, 46 Yoshida-Shimoadachi-Cho, Sakyo, Kyoto 606-8501 Japan.
Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan.
J Mater Cycles Waste Manag. 2023;25(4):2101-2112. doi: 10.1007/s10163-023-01660-5. Epub 2023 May 2.
Material flow analysis (MFA) is an effective tool for waste management, but low- and middle-income countries lack essential data for MFA. This study proposed a simplified MFA (sMFA) utilizing local expert judgment (LEJ) and examining the impact of simplification on its uncertainty. A stochastic sMFA model was developed for nitrogen and phosphorus in urban Mandalay, Myanmar. This model was compared with the intensive MFA (iMFA) model employing intensive surveys for primary data collection. For the total loadings to the environment, the medians of the sMFA were higher by 3% and 11%, respectively, for nitrogen and phosphorus than those of the iMFA. The widths of the 80% confidence intervals of these loadings in the sMFA, normalized by those in the iMFA, were - 0.05 and - 0.11, respectively. The three largest flows to the environment were the same for the two models: on-site sanitation effluent/leakage, greywater, and industrial wastewater. Large median gaps between the models were observed for industrial wastewater, fecal sludge, and human excreta, associated with informal waste management, whereby LEJ did not work well. Overall, the sMFA demonstrated a good estimation of nitrogen and phosphorus flows with limited increase of uncertainty, still requiring focused attention on informal waste streams.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10163-023-01660-5.
物质流分析（MFA）是一种有效的废物管理工具，但中低收入国家缺乏进行MFA所需的基本数据。本研究提出了一种利用当地专家判断（LEJ）的简化物质流分析（sMFA）方法，并研究了简化对其不确定性的影响。为缅甸曼德勒市的氮和磷建立了一个随机sMFA模型。该模型与采用密集调查收集原始数据的强化物质流分析（iMFA）模型进行了比较。对于向环境的总负荷，sMFA中氮和磷的中位数分别比iMFA高3%和11%。sMFA中这些负荷的80%置信区间宽度与iMFA中的相比，经归一化后分别为 -0.05和 -0.11。两个模型中流向环境的三大流量相同：现场卫生污水/渗漏、灰水和工业废水。在工业废水、粪便污泥和人类排泄物方面，模型之间存在较大的中位数差距，这与非正式废物管理有关，在此情况下LEJ效果不佳。总体而言，sMFA在不确定性增加有限的情况下对氮和磷的流动进行了良好的估计，但仍需要重点关注非正式废物流。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s10163-023-01660-5获取的补充材料。
