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血液酒精浓度(BAC)限制降低对不同人群的影响:泊松固定效应分析。

Impact of BAC limit reduction on different population segments: a Poisson fixed effect analysis.

作者信息

Kaplan Sigal, Prato Carlo Giacomo

机构信息

Technion - Israel Institute of Technology, Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Haifa 32000, Israel.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2007 Nov;39(6):1146-54. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2007.02.013. Epub 2007 Mar 26.

Abstract

Over the past few decades, several countries enacted the reduction of the legal blood alcohol concentration (BAC) limit, often alongside the administrative license revocation or suspension, to battle drinking-and-driving behavior. Several researchers investigated the effectiveness of these policies by applying different analysis procedures, while assuming population homogeneity in responding to these laws. The present analysis focuses on the evaluation of the impact of BAC limit reduction on different population segments. Poisson regression models, adapted to account for possible observation dependence over time and state specific effects, are estimated to measure the reduction of the number of alcohol-related accidents and fatalities for single-vehicle accidents in 22 U.S. jurisdictions over a period of 15 years starting in 1990. Model estimates demonstrate that, for alcohol-related single-vehicle crashes, (i) BAC laws are more effective in terms of reduction of number of casualties rather than number of accidents, (ii) women and elderly population exhibit higher law compliance with respect to men and to young adult and adult population, respectively, and (iii) the presence of passengers in the vehicle enhances the sense of responsibility of the driver.

摘要

在过去几十年里,几个国家颁布了降低法定血液酒精浓度(BAC)限制的规定,通常还会同时实施行政吊销或暂扣驾照的措施,以打击酒后驾车行为。几位研究人员通过应用不同的分析程序来调查这些政策的有效性,同时假定民众对这些法律的反应具有同质性。本分析聚焦于评估降低BAC限制对不同人群的影响。为了考虑到可能随时间变化的观测相关性以及各州的特定影响,我们估计了泊松回归模型,以衡量1990年起的15年间美国22个司法管辖区单车事故中与酒精相关的事故及死亡人数的减少情况。模型估计表明,对于与酒精相关的单车碰撞事故,(i)BAC法律在减少伤亡人数方面比减少事故数量更有效,(ii)女性和老年人群体分别比男性以及年轻成年人和成年人群体表现出更高的法律遵从度,(iii)车内有乘客会增强驾驶员的责任感。

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