Pretzsch H, Grote R, Reineking B, Rötzer Th, Seifert St
Technische Universität München, Department of Ecology and Landscape Management, Chair for Forest Growth and Yield Science, Am Hochanger 13, D-85354 Freising, Germany.
Ann Bot. 2008 May;101(8):1065-87. doi: 10.1093/aob/mcm246. Epub 2007 Oct 21.
Forest management in Europe is committed to sustainability. In the face of climate change and accompanying risks, however, planning in order to achieve this aim becomes increasingly challenging, underlining the need for new and innovative methods. Models potentially integrate a wide range of system knowledge and present scenarios of variables important for any management decision. In the past, however, model development has mainly focused on specific purposes whereas today we are increasingly aware of the need for the whole range of information that can be provided by models. It is therefore assumed helpful to review the various approaches that are available for specific tasks and to discuss how they can be used for future management strategies.
Here we develop a concept for the role of models in forest ecosystem management based on historical analyses. Five paradigms of forest management are identified: (1) multiple uses, (2) dominant use, (3) environmentally sensitive multiple uses, (4) full ecosystem approach and (5) eco-regional perspective. An overview of model approaches is given that is dedicated to this purpose and to developments of different kinds of approaches. It is discussed how these models can contribute to goal setting, decision support and development of guidelines for forestry operations. Furthermore, it is shown how scenario analysis, including stand and landscape visualization, can be used to depict alternatives, make long-term consequences of different options transparent, and ease participation of different stakeholder groups and education.
In our opinion, the current challenge of forest ecosystem management in Europe is to integrate system knowledge from different temporal and spatial scales and from various disciplines. For this purpose, using a set of models with different focus that can be selected from a kind of toolbox according to particular needs is more promising than developing one overarching model, covering ecological, production and landscape issues equally well.
欧洲的森林管理致力于可持续性。然而，面对气候变化及随之而来的风险，为实现这一目标而进行的规划变得越来越具有挑战性，这凸显了对新的创新方法的需求。模型有可能整合广泛的系统知识，并呈现对任何管理决策都很重要的变量情景。然而，过去模型开发主要集中在特定目的上，而如今我们越来越意识到需要模型所能提供的全部信息。因此，回顾可用于特定任务的各种方法，并讨论如何将它们用于未来的管理策略，被认为是有帮助的。
在此，我们基于历史分析，为模型在森林生态系统管理中的作用提出一个概念。确定了森林管理的五个范式：（1）多种用途，（2）主导用途，（3）环境敏感型多种用途，（4）全生态系统方法，以及（5）生态区域视角。给出了专门针对此目的的模型方法概述以及不同类型方法的发展情况。讨论了这些模型如何有助于目标设定、决策支持以及林业作业指南的制定。此外，还展示了情景分析，包括林分和景观可视化，如何用于描绘备选方案、使不同选项的长期后果透明化，以及促进不同利益相关者群体的参与和教育。
我们认为，欧洲森林生态系统管理当前面临的挑战是整合来自不同时空尺度和不同学科的系统知识。为此，使用一组根据特定需求可从一种工具箱中选择的、具有不同侧重点的模型，比开发一个能同样很好地涵盖生态、生产和景观问题的总体模型更有前景。
