Lai E, Lundie S, Ashbolt N J
Centre for Water and Waste Technology, School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.
Water Sci Technol. 2007;56(8):11-20. doi: 10.2166/wst.2007.597.
An approach to aid decision making for urban water management is presented that is based on the concept of trade-off sacrifice level in pairwise comparisons between criteria, modelled using fuzzy logic. This approach is illustrated by a case study - selection of alternative water supplies for a Sydney household. Four key decision making criteria covering health, economic, environment and technical aspects are selected: annual probability of infection, life cycle energy use, life cycle cost and reliability. The decision making problem is to select between cases with different volume and application of recycled greywater and rainwater in light of the four criteria. Decision maker's preference is expressed by five levels of trade-off sacrifice between pairs of criteria. The decision makers can assign their preferences for sacrifice level by linguistic assessment and the output trade-off weight (TOW). Measures of decision makers' perceived trade-off level are modelled by a rule-based fuzzy logic control system. The final analysis shows the performance for each sacrifice class for each case, to aid overall decision making with stakeholders.
提出了一种基于标准间成对比较中的权衡牺牲水平概念的城市水资源管理辅助决策方法，该方法采用模糊逻辑进行建模。通过一个案例研究——为悉尼一户家庭选择替代供水方案，对这种方法进行了说明。选择了涵盖健康、经济、环境和技术方面的四个关键决策标准：年度感染概率、生命周期能源使用、生命周期成本和可靠性。决策问题是根据这四个标准，在不同体积和再生中水及雨水应用情况的案例之间进行选择。决策者的偏好通过标准对之间的五个权衡牺牲水平来表达。决策者可以通过语言评估和输出权衡权重（TOW）来指定他们对牺牲水平的偏好。决策者感知到的权衡水平的度量由基于规则的模糊逻辑控制系统进行建模。最终分析展示了每个案例在每个牺牲类别的表现，以帮助与利益相关者进行总体决策。
