Pan Zhenfeng, Hu Dongsheng
Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, 1300 South 4 Street, Suite 300, Louisville, KY 40208, USA. E-mail:
Health Policy Plan. 2008 Mar;23(2):118-24. doi: 10.1093/heapol/czm043. Epub 2007 Nov 12.
This study uses the hierarchical linear modelling (HLM) growth curve technique to explore predictors of the change in the prevalence and frequency of cigarette smoking in China between 1991 and 2004. Using nationally representative data, the study introduces a number of previously unanalysed variables at both the individual and the community level. The findings show that a number of factors are associated with the change in both the prevalence and frequency of smoking in China. In addition, there is a trend of decreasing prevalence of smoking in China after the effects of other covariates are adjusted. Finally, the free market cigarette price has an inconsistent relationship with the change in the prevalence and frequency of smoking, which further reveals the daunting task of tobacco control for public health scholars and policymakers in China.
本研究采用分层线性模型（HLM）增长曲线技术，探讨1991年至2004年间中国吸烟率和吸烟频率变化的预测因素。该研究利用具有全国代表性的数据，在个体和社区层面引入了一些先前未分析的变量。研究结果表明，许多因素与中国吸烟率和吸烟频率的变化有关。此外，在调整其他协变量的影响后，中国吸烟率呈下降趋势。最后，自由市场香烟价格与吸烟率和吸烟频率的变化关系不一致，这进一步揭示了中国公共卫生学者和政策制定者在烟草控制方面面临的艰巨任务。
