A simulation model of AIDS in San Francisco: II. Simulations, therapy, and sensitivity analysis.

The HIV and AIDS incidences each year for homosexual men in San Francisco are estimated from data. A computer simulation model for HIV transmission dynamics and progression to AIDS is used to reconstruct the HIV epidemic. Using some a priori parameter estimates, simulations are found that give good fits to the incidence data. In the stimulations the populations is divided into risk groups whose sexual activities are found to be strongly connected. There is saturation in the high-risk group, but changes in sexual behavior are more important in obtaining adequate fits. The simulation modeling yields useful parameter estimates, but the remaining uncertainty in parameter values implies that the simulation forecasts are also uncertain. Changes in HIV incidence lead to changes in AIDS incidence about 6-10 years later. Simulation models with and without zidovudine treatment both fit the incidence data; thus the effects of therapy on AIDS incidence are unclear. The fits of the simulation model are most sensitive to the yearly migration rate, the number of stages in the progression to AIDS, and the average number of new sexual partners per month; thus better estimates of these parameters would be desirable.