Ryan Louise
Department of Biostatistics, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Stat Med. 2008 Feb 28;27(5):698-710. doi: 10.1002/sim.3053.
The classical statistical paradigm emphasizes the development and application of methods to account for sampling variability. Many modern day applications, however, require consideration of other sources of uncertainty that are not so easy to quantify. This paper presents a case study involving an assessment of the impact of in-utero methylmercury exposure on the Intelligence Quotient (IQ) of young children. We illustrate how familiar techniques such as hierarchical modeling, Bayesian methods and sensitivity analysis can be used to aid decision making in settings that involve substantial uncertainty.
经典统计范式强调开发和应用各种方法来解释抽样变异性。然而,当今许多现代应用需要考虑其他难以量化的不确定性来源。本文介绍了一个案例研究,涉及评估子宫内甲基汞暴露对幼儿智商(IQ)的影响。我们说明了如何使用诸如层次建模、贝叶斯方法和敏感性分析等常见技术,在存在大量不确定性的情况下辅助决策。