Chowdhury Shakhawat, Champagne Pascale, McLellan P James
Department of Civil Engineering, Queen's University, Kingston, ON, Canada.
J Environ Manage. 2009 Apr;90(5):1680-91. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2008.12.014. Epub 2009 Jan 22.
The management of risk from disinfection by-products (DBPs) in drinking water has become a critical issue over the last three decades. The areas of concern for risk management studies include (i) human health risk from DBPs, (ii) disinfection performance, (iii) technical feasibility (maintenance, management and operation) of treatment and disinfection approaches, and (iv) cost. Human health risk assessment is typically considered to be the most important phase of the risk-based decision-making or risk management studies. The factors associated with health risk assessment and other attributes are generally prone to considerable uncertainty. Probabilistic and non-probabilistic approaches have both been employed to characterize uncertainties associated with risk assessment. The probabilistic approaches include sampling-based methods (typically Monte Carlo simulation and stratified sampling) and asymptotic (approximate) reliability analysis (first- and second-order reliability methods). Non-probabilistic approaches include interval analysis, fuzzy set theory and possibility theory. However, it is generally accepted that no single method is suitable for the entire spectrum of problems encountered in uncertainty analyses for risk assessment. Each method has its own set of advantages and limitations. In this paper, the feasibility and limitations of different uncertainty analysis approaches are outlined for risk management studies of drinking water supply systems. The findings assist in the selection of suitable approaches for uncertainty analysis in risk management studies associated with DBPs and human health risk.
在过去三十年中，饮用水中消毒副产物（DBPs）的风险管理已成为一个关键问题。风险管理研究关注的领域包括：（i）DBPs对人类健康的风险；（ii）消毒性能；（iii）处理和消毒方法的技术可行性（维护、管理和运行）；以及（iv）成本。通常认为，人类健康风险评估是基于风险的决策或风险管理研究中最重要的阶段。与健康风险评估及其他属性相关的因素通常容易存在相当大的不确定性。概率方法和非概率方法都已被用于描述与风险评估相关的不确定性。概率方法包括基于抽样的方法（通常是蒙特卡洛模拟和分层抽样）以及渐近（近似）可靠性分析（一阶和二阶可靠性方法）。非概率方法包括区间分析、模糊集理论和可能性理论。然而，人们普遍认为，没有一种单一方法适用于风险评估不确定性分析中遇到的所有问题。每种方法都有其自身的优点和局限性。本文概述了不同不确定性分析方法在饮用水供应系统风险管理研究中的可行性和局限性。这些研究结果有助于在与DBPs和人类健康风险相关的风险管理研究中选择合适的不确定性分析方法。
