Predicting somatic cell count standard violations based on herd's bulk tank somatic cell count. Part I: Analyzing variation.

The present study examines the relationship between the bulk tank somatic cell count (SCC) mean and sigma (an estimate of variation) and the probability of exceeding a SCC standard. Daily or every other day, bulk tank SCC data were collected for 24 mo from 1,501 herds. Mean and sigma were estimated for each herd monthly and were compared between months and herd production categories using Kruskal-Wallis nonparametric ANOVA. The effect of month on bulk tank SCC mean and sigma was significant, with estimates for all summer months and most of the spring and fall months being significantly greater than estimates of mean and sigma in December 2004. Logistic regression models were developed to examine the relationship between month and herd production and the odds of a herd exceeding a SCC standard. The odds of exceeding a bulk tank SCC standard were significantly greater in the summer months and for smaller herds. A grid was constructed determining the probability of exceeding any of 5 SCC standards (200,000 to 600,000 cells/mL, step 100,000 cells/mL) in the following month, based on the mean and sigma of the past month. The violation probability grid can be used to assess the prospect of meeting quality premium goals and to proactively encourage more consistent performance in all the processes affecting bulk tank SCC.