Strategic Solutions Group, Puslinch, ON, Canada.
J Dairy Sci. 2012 Jan;95(1):240-2. doi: 10.3168/jds.2011-4642.
The objective of this study was to determine the effect of somatic cell count (SCC) monitoring at the cow level through Dairy Herd Improvement (DHI) programs on the risk of bulk tank SCC (BTSCC) penalties. For the year 2009, BTSCC for all producers in Ontario were examined, for a total of 2,898 DHI herds, 1,186 non-DHI herds, and 48,250 BTSCC records. Two penalty levels were examined, where BTSCC exceeded 499,000 (P500) and 399,000 (P400) cells/mL. Data were modeled first to determine the odds of a BTSCC exceeding a set penalty threshold and second to determine the odds of incurring a penalty under the Ontario Milk Act. All data were modeled as a generalized mixed model with a binary link function. Random effects included herd, fixed effects included season of BTSCC (summer, May to September, and winter, October to April), total milk shipped per month (L), fat paid per month (kg), protein paid per month (kg), and participation or not in the DHI program. The likelihood of a BTSCC exceeding a penalty threshold in a non-DHI herd compared with a DHI herd was significantly greater than 1 at both penalty levels, where the odds ratios were estimated to be 1.42 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19 to 1.69] and 1.38 (95% CI: 1.25 to 1.54) for P500 and P400, respectively. The likelihood of incurring a BTSCC penalty (where 3 out of 4 consecutive BTSCC exceeded penalty thresholds) was not significantly different at P500; however, it was significantly different for P400, where the odds ratio was estimated to be 1.42 (95% CI: 1.12 to 1.81).
本研究旨在通过奶业改良(Dairy Herd Improvement,DHI)计划监测奶牛体细胞计数(Somatic Cell Count,SCC),以确定其对批量奶体细胞计数(Bulk Tank SCC,BTSCC)罚款风险的影响。在 2009 年,对安大略省所有奶农的 BTSCC 进行了检查,涉及 2898 个 DHI 牛群、1186 个非 DHI 牛群和 48250 个 BTSCC 记录。检查了两个罚款级别,即 BTSCC 超过 499000(P500)和 399000(P400)细胞/ml。首先对数据进行建模,以确定 BTSCC 超过设定罚款阈值的可能性,然后根据安大略省牛奶法确定罚款的可能性。所有数据均采用广义混合模型和二进制链接函数进行建模。随机效应包括牛群,固定效应包括 BTSCC 的季节(5 月至 9 月的夏季和 10 月至 4 月的冬季)、每月牛奶产量(L)、每月脂肪支付量(kg)、每月蛋白质支付量(kg)以及是否参与 DHI 计划。与 DHI 牛群相比,非 DHI 牛群 BTSCC 超过罚款阈值的可能性在两个罚款级别上均显著大于 1,其优势比估计分别为 1.42[95%置信区间(CI):1.19 至 1.69]和 1.38(95%CI:1.25 至 1.54)。对于 P500,未发现 BTSCC 罚款的可能性(4 次连续 BTSCC 中有 3 次超过罚款阈值)存在显著差异;然而,对于 P400,其差异显著,优势比估计为 1.42(95%CI:1.12 至 1.81)。