Busanello Marcos, de Freitas Larissa Nazareth, Winckler João Pedro Pereira, Farias Hiron Pereira, Dos Santos Dias Carlos Tadeu, Cassoli Laerte Dagher, Machado Paulo Fernando
Department of Animal Science, College of Agriculture, "Luiz de Queiroz"/University of São Paulo - ESALQ/USP, Campus Piracicaba, São Paulo, 13418-900 Brazil.
Department of Exact Sciences, College of Agriculture, "Luiz de Queiroz"/University of São Paulo - ESALQ/USP, Campus Piracicaba, São Paulo, 13418-900 Brazil.
Ir Vet J. 2017 Aug 15;70:26. doi: 10.1186/s13620-017-0103-z. eCollection 2017.
Payment programs based on milk quality (PPBMQ) are used in several countries around the world as an incentive to improve milk quality. One of the principal milk parameters used in such programs is the bulk tank somatic cell count (BTSCC). In this study, using data from an average of 37,000 farms per month in Brazil where milk was analyzed, BTSCC data were divided into different payment classes based on milk quality. Then, descriptive and graphical analyses were performed. The probability of a change to a worse payment class was calculated, future BTSCC values were predicted using time series models, and financial losses due to the failure to reach the maximum bonus for the payment based on milk quality were simulated.
In Brazil, the mean BTSCC has remained high in recent years, without a tendency to improve. The probability of changing to a worse payment class was strongly affected by both the BTSCC average and BTSCC standard deviation for classes 1 and 2 (1000-200,000 and 201,000-400,000 cells/mL, respectively) and only by the BTSCC average for classes 3 and 4 (401,000-500,000 and 501,000-800,000 cells/mL, respectively). The time series models indicated that at some point in the year, farms would not remain in their current class and would accrue financial losses due to payments based on milk quality.
The BTSCC for Brazilian dairy farms has not recently improved. The probability of a class change to a worse class is a metric that can aid in decision-making and stimulate farmers to improve milk quality. A time series model can be used to predict the future value of the BTSCC, making it possible to estimate financial losses and to show, moreover, that financial losses occur in all classes of the PPBMQ because the farmers do not remain in the best payment class in all months.
基于牛奶质量的支付计划（PPBMQ）在世界上多个国家被用作提高牛奶质量的一种激励措施。此类计划中使用的主要牛奶参数之一是奶罐体细胞计数（BTSCC）。在本研究中，利用巴西每月平均37000个农场的牛奶分析数据，根据牛奶质量将BTSCC数据划分为不同的支付等级。然后进行了描述性分析和图形分析。计算了支付等级变差的概率，使用时间序列模型预测了未来的BTSCC值，并模拟了因未达到基于牛奶质量的支付最高奖金而导致的财务损失。
在巴西，近年来BTSCC的平均值一直居高不下，且没有改善的趋势。对于第1和第2等级（分别为1000 - 200000和201000 - 400000个细胞/毫升），支付等级变差的概率受BTSCC平均值和BTSCC标准差的强烈影响，而对于第3和第4等级（分别为401000 - 500000和501000 - 800000个细胞/毫升），仅受BTSCC平均值的影响。时间序列模型表明，在一年中的某些时候，农场将不会保持在当前等级，并且会因基于牛奶质量的支付而产生财务损失。
巴西奶牛场的BTSCC最近没有改善。支付等级变差的概率是一个有助于决策并激励奶农提高牛奶质量的指标。时间序列模型可用于预测BTSCC的未来值，从而有可能估计财务损失，而且还表明在PPBMQ的所有等级中都会出现财务损失，因为奶农并非在所有月份都处于最佳支付等级。
