Shinkarev Sergey M, Voillequé Paul G, Gavrilin Yury I, Khrouch Valery T, Bouville André, Hoshi Masaharu, Meckbach Reinhard, Minenko Victor F, Ulanovsky Alexander V, Luckyanov Nicholas
State Research Center, Institute of Biophysics, Ministry of Health, 46 Zhivopisnaya Street, Moscow, 123182, Russian Federation.
Health Phys. 2008 Feb;94(2):180-7. doi: 10.1097/01.HP.0000288044.73410.6b.
Many estimates of individual thyroid doses to children and adults in Belarus have been based on the results of direct thyroid measurements made using survey meters soon after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Thyroid doses from internal exposure to 131I that are estimated using such measurements are usually considered to be better than estimates obtained by environmental transport modeling of concentrations expected in milk. Nonetheless, some of the estimated doses, primarily those to children, were high enough to raise questions about their credibility. Questions about high thyroid doses, taken here to be those exceeding 10 Gy, identified the need for further analysis, which is reported in this article. The overall conclusion is that the initial dose estimates exceeding 10 Gy based on direct thyroid measurements in Belarus are credible estimates and not mistakes. While the possibility of copying and data entry errors cannot be completely ruled out, the consistency of multiple measurements for many individuals supports the high dose estimates.
对白俄罗斯儿童和成人个体甲状腺剂量的许多估算,都是基于1986年切尔诺贝利事故后不久使用测量仪进行的直接甲状腺测量结果。通过此类测量估算的因内照射131I所致的甲状腺剂量,通常被认为比通过对牛奶中预期浓度进行环境迁移建模得到的估算结果更可靠。然而,一些估算剂量,主要是儿童的估算剂量,高到足以让人质疑其可信度。这里将甲状腺高剂量定义为超过10 Gy的剂量,对这些高剂量的质疑表明有必要进行进一步分析,本文对此进行了报道。总体结论是,基于对白俄罗斯甲状腺的直接测量得出的超过10 Gy的初始剂量估算是可信的,并非错误。虽然不能完全排除抄写和数据录入错误的可能性,但许多个体多次测量结果的一致性支持了高剂量估算。