Barnett Tim P, Pierce David W, Hidalgo Hugo G, Bonfils Celine, Santer Benjamin D, Das Tapash, Bala Govindasamy, Wood Andrew W, Nozawa Toru, Mirin Arthur A, Cayan Daniel R, Dettinger Michael D
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
Science. 2008 Feb 22;319(5866):1080-3. doi: 10.1126/science.1152538. Epub 2008 Jan 31.
Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high-resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate-related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human-induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.
观测表明，美国西部的水文循环在20世纪后半叶发生了显著变化。我们开展了一项区域多变量气候变化检测与归因研究，使用由全球气候模型驱动的高分辨率水文模型，重点关注已经影响到这个人口众多且不断增长的主要干旱地区的变化。结果表明，1950年至1999年间，河流流量、冬季气温和积雪量等与气候相关趋势中高达60%是由人类活动引起的。这些结果对于研究变量和方法的扰动具有稳健性。结合此前的研究工作，它们预示着美国西部即将面临供水危机。
