Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, West Glacier, MT, USA.
Flathead Lake Biological Station, University of Montana, Polson, MT, USA.
Sci Adv. 2022 Sep 9;8(36):eabn1396. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.abn1396. Epub 2022 Sep 7.
Heterogeneity is a central feature of ecosystem resilience, but how this translates to socioeconomic resilience depends on people's ability to track shifting resources in space and time. Here, we quantify how climatic extremes have influenced how people (fishers) track economically valuable ecosystem services (fishing opportunities) across a range of spatial scales in rivers of the northern Rocky Mountains, USA, over the past three decades. Fishers opportunistically shifted from drought-sensitive to drought-resistant rivers during periods of low streamflows and warm temperatures. This adaptive behavior stabilized fishing pressure and expenditures by a factor of 2.6 at the scale of the regional fishery (i.e., portfolio effect). However, future warming is predicted to homogenize habitat options that enable adaptive behavior by fishers, putting ~30% of current spending at risk across the region. Maintaining a diverse portfolio of fishing opportunities that enable people to exploit shifting resources provides an important resilience mechanism for mitigating the socioeconomic impacts of climate change on fisheries.
异质性是生态系统恢复力的一个核心特征，但这如何转化为社会经济恢复力取决于人们在空间和时间上跟踪资源变化的能力。在这里，我们量化了在过去三十年中，极端气候如何影响人们（渔民）在美国落基山脉北部的河流中跟踪具有经济价值的生态系统服务（捕鱼机会）的各种空间尺度。在低水流和温暖温度时期，渔民机会主义地从对干旱敏感的河流转移到对干旱有抵抗力的河流。这种适应性行为将渔业压力和支出稳定在区域渔业规模的 2.6 倍（即投资组合效应）。然而，未来的变暖预计将使使渔民能够进行适应性行为的栖息地选择趋同，使该地区约 30%的现有支出面临风险。保持多样化的捕鱼机会组合，使人们能够利用变化的资源，为减轻气候变化对渔业的社会经济影响提供了一个重要的恢复力机制。
