Bhrolcháin Máire Ní
Division of Social Statistics, University of Southampton, UK.
J Biosoc Sci. 2008 Jul;40(4):527-52. doi: 10.1017/S0021932007002519. Epub 2008 Feb 4.
A method for decomposing partner availability into its demographic components (preferences, previous birth trends, migration and mortality, and structure by marital status) is presented and applied to marriage market estimates for selected census years 1911-91 in England and Wales. Preferences are a key component at the youngest ages. The role of other factors varies by age and time period. Contrary to widespread assumption, variation in cohort sizes resulting from past fertility trends is not the dominant contributor to partner availability during this period. Mortality and migration effects tend to be larger than the effect of birth trends and the two marital status components are generally the largest in size. Determinants of intercensal change are similar to the cross-sectional picture. Reasons for the modest contribution of trends in annual births are discussed. Cohort effects on partner supply are not necessarily absent but could arise through a number of mechanisms.
本文提出了一种将伴侣可得性分解为其人口统计学组成部分（偏好、以往出生趋势、迁移和死亡率以及按婚姻状况划分的结构）的方法，并将其应用于1911年至1991年英格兰和威尔士特定普查年份的婚姻市场估计。偏好在最年轻年龄段是一个关键组成部分。其他因素的作用因年龄和时间段而异。与普遍假设相反，过去生育趋势导致的同期群规模变化在此期间并非伴侣可得性的主要贡献因素。死亡率和迁移效应往往大于出生趋势的影响，并且两个婚姻状况组成部分通常规模最大。两次普查期间变化的决定因素与横断面情况相似。讨论了年度出生趋势贡献不大的原因。同期群对伴侣供应的影响不一定不存在，但可能通过多种机制产生。
