Eckhard Jan, Stauder Johannes
Heidelberg University, Heidelberg, Germany.
Eur J Popul. 2017 May 11;34(1):59-86. doi: 10.1007/s10680-017-9422-8. eCollection 2018 Feb.
The study explores the consequences of gender-selective internal migration for regional mating chances in Germany, comparing different cohorts as well as different types of regions. Indicators of the partner market based on time series of the official German regional population statistics are combined with indicators of migration and on regional economic, educational, and settlement structures. Instead of the simple sex ratio, which is the standard measure for partner market conditions in previous research, the study at hand uses the availability ratio suggested by Goldman et al. (Popul Index 50(1):5-25, 1984). The availability ratio takes into account that partner markets are structured by age preferences. Like previous studies, results show that gender-selective migration has led to a strong deterioration of mating chances for men in most eastern districts of Germany. Exceptions are districts offering universities as well as a large tertiary sector. But, unlike previous research, results also show that migration-caused imbalances of the partner market in eastern German districts are not extraordinarily high. In the western part of Germany, there were at times even stronger partner market imbalances for some male cohorts as a consequence of oscillating birth rates.
该研究探讨了德国性别选择性内部迁移对区域择偶机会的影响，比较了不同的队列以及不同类型的地区。基于德国官方区域人口统计时间序列的伴侣市场指标，与迁移指标以及区域经济、教育和定居结构指标相结合。该研究没有采用先前研究中作为伴侣市场条件标准衡量指标的简单性别比，而是使用了戈德曼等人（《人口索引》50(1):5 - 25，1984年）提出的可得性比率。可得性比率考虑到伴侣市场是由年龄偏好构建的。与先前的研究一样，结果表明，性别选择性迁移导致德国东部大多数地区男性的择偶机会大幅恶化。提供大学教育以及大型第三产业的地区是例外。但是，与先前的研究不同，结果还表明，德国东部地区由迁移导致的伴侣市场失衡并非异常严重。在德国西部，由于出生率波动，某些男性队列的伴侣市场失衡有时甚至更为严重。
