Brondizio Eduardo S, Moran Emilio F
Department of Anthropology, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana 47405, USA.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2008 May 27;363(1498):1803-9. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2007.0025.
This paper argues for a twofold perspective on human adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. First, we need to understand the processes that mediate perceptions of environmental change and the behavioural responses at the levels of the individual and the local population. Second, we should take into account the process of production and dissemination of global and national climate information and models to regional and local populations, especially small farmers. We discuss the sociocultural and environmental diversity of small farmers in the Amazon and their susceptibility to climate change associated with drought, flooding and accidental fire. Using survey, ethnographic and archival data from study areas in the state of Pará, we discuss farmers' sources of knowledge and long-term memory of climatic events, drought and accidental fire; their sources of climate information; their responses to drought and fire events and the impact of changing rainfall patterns on land use. We highlight the challenges of adaptation to climate change created by the influence of migration and family turnover on collective action and memory, the mismatch of scales used to monitor and disseminate climate data and the lack of extension services to translate large-scale forecasts to local needs. We found that for most farmers, memories of extended drought tend to decrease significantly after 3 years. Over 50% of the farmers interviewed in 2002 did not remember as significant the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought of 1997/1998. This helps explain why approximately 40% of the farmers have not changed their land-use behaviours in the face of the strongest ENSO event of the twentieth century.
本文主张从双重角度看待亚马逊地区人类对气候变化的适应。首先,我们需要了解在个体和当地人口层面上调节对环境变化的认知及行为反应的过程。其次,我们应考虑全球和国家气候信息及模型向区域和当地人口,尤其是小农户进行生产和传播的过程。我们讨论了亚马逊地区小农户的社会文化和环境多样性,以及他们对与干旱、洪水和意外火灾相关的气候变化的易感性。利用来自帕拉州研究区域的调查、民族志和档案数据,我们讨论了农民关于气候事件、干旱和意外火灾的知识来源和长期记忆;他们的气候信息来源;他们对干旱和火灾事件的应对措施,以及降雨模式变化对土地利用的影响。我们强调了因移民和家庭更替对集体行动和记忆的影响、用于监测和传播气候数据的尺度不匹配以及缺乏将大规模预测转化为当地需求的推广服务而给适应气候变化带来的挑战。我们发现,对于大多数农民来说,持续干旱的记忆在3年后往往会显著减少。2002年接受采访的农民中,超过50%不记得1997/1998年厄尔尼诺南方涛动(ENSO)引发的干旱很严重。这有助于解释为什么面对20世纪最强的ENSO事件,约40%的农民没有改变他们的土地利用行为。
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