Centre for Climate Research and Development (CCRD), COMSATS University Islamabad, Park Road, Tarlai Kalan, Islamabad, 45550, Pakistan.
Research Group Climate Change and Security (CLISEC), Institute of Geography, Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), University of Hamburg, Grindelberg 7, 20144, Hamburg, Germany.
Environ Manage. 2019 Jan;63(1):110-123. doi: 10.1007/s00267-018-1113-7. Epub 2018 Oct 19.
Farmers' willingness and ability to adapt agricultural systems depend on their knowledge about changes in climate and perceived risks of extreme events. Using cross-sectional data of 450 farmers collected from three agro-ecological zones of Punjab, Pakistan, this study investigates farmer perceptions of climate change and their agreement with observed climatic trends. In addition, this study explores the correlation between different adaptation stages (perceptions, intentions, and adaptation) and their key drivers using a Multivariate Probit Model. This study also explores the adaptation measures adopted by farmers. The results of the study show that the perceptions of increasing mean temperature match well with locally recorded data. However, a discrepancy is found in some cases between farmer perceptions of rainfall changes and local climate records. Moreover, education, experience, land tenure, land holdings, extension, cooperation, access to weather forecasting, and marketing information are the factors influencing the three adaptation stages. A strong association is found among the three adaptation stages. Particularly, the study confirms the hypothesis that accurate perceptions lead to stronger adaptation intentions compared to underestimated or no perceptions. Further, farmers prefer basic adaptation measures including changing crop varieties, input use and planting dates over advanced measures, such as planting shade trees, soil conservation, and crop diversification. The study recommends providing farmers, especially small landholders and tenants, easy access to information, institutional services and training on the use of advanced measures to reduce negative impacts of climate change at the farm level.
农民适应农业系统的意愿和能力取决于他们对气候变化的了解和对极端事件风险的认知。本研究利用从巴基斯坦旁遮普省三个农业生态区收集的 450 名农民的横截面数据,调查了农民对气候变化的认知及其对观测到的气候趋势的认同。此外,本研究还使用多元概率比例模型探讨了不同适应阶段(认知、意愿和适应)及其关键驱动因素之间的相关性。本研究还探讨了农民采取的适应措施。研究结果表明,平均气温升高的认知与当地记录的数据吻合较好,但在某些情况下,农民对降雨变化的认知与当地气候记录存在差异。此外,教育、经验、土地保有权、土地持有量、推广、合作、获取天气预报和营销信息是影响三个适应阶段的因素。三个适应阶段之间存在很强的关联。特别是,该研究证实了这样一个假设,即准确的认知会导致更强的适应意愿,而低估或没有认知则会导致较弱的适应意愿。此外,农民更喜欢基本的适应措施,包括改变作物品种、投入使用和种植日期,而不是先进的措施,如种植遮荫树、土壤保持和作物多样化。本研究建议为农民,特别是小土地所有者和租户提供便捷的信息获取渠道、机构服务和先进措施的使用培训,以减轻气候变化对农场层面的负面影响。
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