Mayosi Bongani M, Wiysonge Charles Shey, Ntsekhe Mpiko, Gumedze Freedom, Volmink Jimmy A, Maartens Gary, Aje Akinyemi, Thomas Baby M, Thomas Kandathil M, Awotedu Abolade A, Thembela Bongani, Mntla Phindile, Maritz Frans, Blackett Kathleen Ngu, Nkouonlack Duquesne C, Burch Vanessa C, Rebe Kevin, Parrish Andy, Sliwa Karen, Vezi Brian Z, Alam Nowshad, Brown Basil G, Gould Trevor, Visser Tim, Magula Nombulelo P, Commerford Patrick J
Department of Medicine, University of Cape Town.
S Afr Med J. 2008 Jan;98(1):36-40.
To determine the mortality rate and its predictors in patients with a presumptive diagnosis of tuberculous pericarditis in sub-Saharan Africa.
Between 1 March 2004 and 31 October 2004, we enrolled 185 consecutive patients with presumed tuberculous pericarditis from 15 referral hospitals in Cameroon, Nigeria and South Africa, and observed them during the 6-month course of antituberculosis treatment for the major outcome of mortality. This was an observational study, with the diagnosis and management of each patient left at the discretion of the attending physician. Using Cox regression, we have assessed the effect of clinical and therapeutic characteristics (recorded at baseline) on mortality during follow-up.
We obtained the vital status of 174 (94%) patients (median age 33; range 14 - 87 years). The overall mortality rate was 26%. Mortality was higher in patients who had clinical features of HIV infection than in those who did not (40% v. 17%, p=0.001). Independent predictors of death during followup were: (i) a proven non-tuberculosis final diagnosis (hazard ratio (HR) 5.35, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.76 - 16.25), (ii) the presence of clinical signs of HIV infection (HR 2.28, CI 1.14 - 4.56), (iii) coexistent pulmonary tuberculosis (HR 2.33, CI 1.20 - 4.54), and (iv) older age (HR 1.02, CI 1.01 - 1.05). There was also a trend towards an increase in death rate in patients with haemodynamic instability (HR 1.80, CI 0.90 - 3.58) and a decrease in those who underwent pericardiocentesis (HR 0.34, CI 0.10 - 1.19).
A presumptive diagnosis of tuberculous pericarditis is associated with a high mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Attention to rapid aetiological diagnosis of pericardial effusion and treatment of concomitant HIV infection may reduce the high mortality associated with the disease.
确定撒哈拉以南非洲地区疑似结核性心包炎患者的死亡率及其预测因素。
2004年3月1日至2004年10月31日期间,我们从喀麦隆、尼日利亚和南非的15家转诊医院连续纳入了185例疑似结核性心包炎患者,并在6个月的抗结核治疗过程中观察他们的主要结局——死亡率。这是一项观察性研究,每位患者的诊断和管理由主治医生自行决定。我们使用Cox回归评估了临床和治疗特征(在基线时记录)对随访期间死亡率的影响。
我们获得了174例(94%)患者的生命状态(中位年龄33岁;范围14 - 87岁)。总体死亡率为26%。有HIV感染临床特征的患者死亡率高于无此特征的患者(40%对17%,p = 0.001)。随访期间死亡的独立预测因素为:(i)最终确诊为非结核性疾病(风险比(HR)5.35,95%置信区间(CI)1.76 - 16.25),(ii)存在HIV感染的临床体征(HR 2.28,CI 1.14 - 4.56),(iii)并存肺结核(HR 2.33,CI 1.20 - 4.54),以及(iv)年龄较大(HR 1.02,CI 1.01 - 1.05)。血流动力学不稳定的患者死亡率也有上升趋势(HR 1.80,CI 0.90 - 3.58),而接受心包穿刺术的患者死亡率有下降趋势(HR 0.34,CI 0.10 - 1.19)。
在撒哈拉以南非洲地区,疑似结核性心包炎与高死亡率相关。关注心包积液的快速病因诊断以及合并HIV感染的治疗可能会降低与该疾病相关的高死亡率。