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模拟温度对死亡率的影响：具有共同断点的多个分段关系。

Modeling temperature effects on mortality: multiple segmented relationships with common break points.

作者信息

Muggeo Vito M R

机构信息

Dipartimento di Scienze Statistiche e Matematiche S. Vianelli-Università di Palermo, viale delle Scienze, Palermo, Italy.

出版信息

Biostatistics. 2008 Oct;9(4):613-20. doi: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxm057. Epub 2008 Feb 27.

DOI:10.1093/biostatistics/kxm057
PMID:18308697
Abstract

We present a model for estimation of temperature effects on mortality that is able to capture jointly the typical features of every temperature-death relationship, that is, nonlinearity and delayed effect of cold and heat over a few days. Using a segmented approximation along with a doubly penalized spline-based distributed lag parameterization, estimates and relevant standard errors of the cold- and heat-related risks and the heat tolerance are provided. The model is applied to data from Milano, Italy.

摘要

我们提出了一个用于估计温度对死亡率影响的模型，该模型能够共同捕捉每种温度与死亡关系的典型特征，即非线性以及寒冷和炎热在数天内的延迟效应。通过分段近似以及基于双惩罚样条的分布滞后参数化，给出了与寒冷和炎热相关风险以及耐热性的估计值和相关标准误差。该模型应用于意大利米兰的数据。

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