Livingston Michael
AER Centre for Alcohol Policy Research, Turning Point Alcohol and Drug Centre, Fitzroy, Australia.
Alcohol Clin Exp Res. 2008 Jun;32(6):1074-9. doi: 10.1111/j.1530-0277.2008.00669.x. Epub 2008 Apr 26.
The majority of studies that have examined the local-level relationship between alcohol outlet density and violence have utilized cross-sectional data. These studies have consistently demonstrated that there is a spatial link between outlets and violence, but because of their design they have not been able to determine whether changes in outlet density result in changes in rates of violence. The few studies that have examined this question over time have found that the violence rates are related to changes in outlet density. This study provides further evidence of this link and examines the characteristics of regions in which changes in outlet density are most strongly associated with changes in violence rates.
The study examined 9 years of data measuring alcohol outlet density (using liquor licensing records) and alcohol-related violence (using police recorded night-time assaults) from 186 postcodes in the metropolitan area of Melbourne, Australia. The relationships between 3 types of alcohol outlet density and alcohol-related violence were assessed using fixed-effects models. The postcodes were then grouped into 5 clusters based on their socio-demographic profile and separate fixed-effects models were fitted to assess whether the relationships between outlets and violence differed based on the type of region being examined.
The initial models found overall positive relationships between all 3 types of alcohol outlets and violence. When separate models were developed for postcode clusters, they demonstrated that the link between outlet density and violence was significant in all neighborhood types, but the specific relationships varied substantially.
Changes in the number of alcohol outlets in a community are linked to changes in the amount of violence the community experiences. This relationship varies across the clusters of suburbs examined, with packaged liquor outlets consistently associated with violence in suburban areas and general (hotel) and on-premise (nightclubs, restaurants, and bars) licenses associated with violence in inner-city and inner-suburban areas.
大多数研究酒精销售点密度与暴力之间的地方层面关系的研究都使用了横断面数据。这些研究一致表明，销售点与暴力之间存在空间联系，但由于其设计，它们无法确定销售点密度的变化是否会导致暴力发生率的变化。少数长期研究这个问题的研究发现，暴力发生率与销售点密度的变化有关。本研究提供了这一联系的进一步证据，并考察了销售点密度变化与暴力发生率变化最密切相关的地区的特征。
该研究考察了澳大利亚墨尔本大都市区186个邮政编码区9年的数据，这些数据测量了酒精销售点密度（使用酒类许可证记录）和与酒精相关的暴力事件（使用警方记录的夜间袭击事件）。使用固定效应模型评估了3种类型的酒精销售点密度与与酒精相关的暴力事件之间的关系。然后根据社会人口特征将邮政编码区分为5个集群，并拟合单独的固定效应模型，以评估销售点与暴力之间的关系是否因所考察的地区类型而异。
初始模型发现所有3种类型的酒精销售点与暴力之间总体上存在正相关关系。当为邮政编码集群建立单独的模型时，结果表明销售点密度与暴力之间的联系在所有邻里类型中都很显著，但具体关系差异很大。
社区中酒精销售点数量的变化与社区经历的暴力数量的变化有关。这种关系在所考察的郊区集群中有所不同，包装酒类销售点在郊区一直与暴力相关，而一般（酒店）和场所内（夜总会、餐馆和酒吧）许可证在市中心和内郊区与暴力相关。
