Jenkins Helen E, Woodroffe Rosie, Donnelly Christl A
MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London W2 1PG, UK.
Int J Infect Dis. 2008 Sep;12(5):457-65. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2008.04.001. Epub 2008 May 27.
The effective control of human and livestock diseases is challenging where infection persists in wildlife populations. The Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) demonstrated that, while it was underway, proactive badger (Meles meles) culling reduced bovine tuberculosis (TB) incidence inside culled areas but increased incidence in neighboring areas, suggesting that the costs of such culling might outweigh the benefits.
The objective of this study was to investigate whether culling impacts persisted more than one year following the cessation of culling (the 'post-trial' period). We compared TB incidence in and around RBCT proactive culling areas with that in and around matched unculled areas.
During the post-trial period, cattle TB incidence inside culled areas was reduced, to an extent significantly greater (p=0.002) than during culling. In neighboring areas, elevated risks observed during culling were not observed post-trial (p=0.038). However, the post-trial effects were comparable to those observed towards the end of the trial (inside RBCT areas: p=0.18 and neighboring areas: p=0.14).
Although to-date the overall benefits of culling remain modest, they were greater than was apparent during the culling period alone. Continued monitoring will demonstrate how long beneficial effects last, indicating the overall capacity of such culling to reduce cattle TB incidence.
在野生动物种群中存在感染的情况下，有效控制人畜疾病具有挑战性。随机獾捕杀试验（RBCT）表明，在试验进行期间，主动捕杀獾（欧洲獾）可降低捕杀区域内牛结核病（TB）的发病率，但会增加邻近区域的发病率，这表明这种捕杀的成本可能超过收益。
本研究的目的是调查捕杀停止后（“试验后”时期），其影响是否会持续超过一年。我们将RBCT主动捕杀区域及其周边的结核病发病率与匹配的未捕杀区域及其周边的发病率进行了比较。
在试验后时期，捕杀区域内牛结核病的发病率有所降低，降低幅度显著大于捕杀期间（p = 0.002）。在邻近区域，捕杀期间观察到的风险升高在试验后未出现（p = 0.038）。然而，试验后的影响与试验结束时观察到的影响相当（在RBCT区域内：p = 0.18，邻近区域：p = 0.14）。
尽管迄今为止，捕杀的总体益处仍然不大，但比仅在捕杀期间明显更大。持续监测将表明有益效果能持续多久，这表明这种捕杀降低牛结核病发病率的总体能力。
