Hu Guoqing, Webster Daniel, Baker Susan P
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Central South University, Changsha, Hunan, China.
J Urban Health. 2008 Jul;85(4):597-606. doi: 10.1007/s11524-008-9287-6. Epub 2008 May 29.
Prior to 1999, dramatic fluctuations in homicide rates were driven by changes in the rates of firearm homicide among men aged 15-24. Since 2000, the overall homicide rate has appeared stable, masking any changes in population subgroups. We analyzed recent trends in homicide rates by weapon, age, race, gender, state, and urbanization to determine whether the risk of victimization increased substantially during 1999-2005 for demographic subgroups. The analysis of WISQARS data and Wonder data from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention revealed no trend in the homicide rate nationally between 1999 and 2005; this obscured large increases in firearm homicide rates among black men aged 25-44 and among white men aged 25-34. Between 1999 and 2005, for ages 25-44 combined, the increase for black men was 31% compared with 12% for white men. Significant increases among men aged 25-44 occurred in Alabama, California, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas, and Washington. The firearm homicide rate increased the most in large central metropolitan areas (+32%) and large fringe metropolitan areas (+30%) for men aged 25-44. We conclude that the recent, unrecognized increases in firearm homicide among men aged 25-44, especially black men, in large metropolitan areas merit the attention of policymakers.
1999年以前，杀人率的剧烈波动是由15至24岁男性中枪支杀人率的变化所驱动的。自2000年以来，总体杀人率似乎保持稳定，掩盖了人口亚组中的任何变化。我们分析了按武器、年龄、种族、性别、州和城市化程度划分的杀人率近期趋势，以确定在1999 - 2005年期间，不同人口亚组的受害风险是否大幅增加。对疾病控制与预防中心的WISQARS数据和Wonder数据的分析显示，1999年至2005年期间全国杀人率没有趋势；这掩盖了25至44岁黑人男性和25至34岁白人男性中枪支杀人率的大幅上升。在1999年至2005年期间，对于25至44岁的人群综合来看，黑人男性的增幅为31%，而白人男性为12%。在阿拉巴马州、加利福尼亚州、密歇根州、明尼苏达州、内布拉斯加州、内华达州、新泽西州、俄亥俄州、宾夕法尼亚州、得克萨斯州和华盛顿州，25至44岁男性的杀人率显著上升。对于25至44岁男性，在大型中心都市地区（+32%）和大型边缘都市地区（+30%），枪支杀人率上升幅度最大。我们得出结论，近期在大型都市地区，25至44岁男性，尤其是黑人男性中未被认识到的枪支杀人率上升值得政策制定者关注。
