Newcomer Adam, Blumsack Seth A, Apt Jay, Lave Lester B, Morgan M Granger
Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center, Tepper School of Business, and Department of Engineering and Public Policy, 254 Posner Hall, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, USA.
Environ Sci Technol. 2008 May 1;42(9):3139-44. doi: 10.1021/es071749d.
The price of delivered electricity will rise if generators have to pay for carbon dioxide emissions through an implicit or explicit mechanism. There are two main effects that a substantial price on CO2 emissions would have in the short run (before the generation fleet changes significantly). First, consumers would react to increased price by buying less, described by their price elasticity of demand. Second, a price on CO2 emissions would change the order in which existing generators are economically dispatched, depending on their carbon dioxide emissions and marginal fuel prices. Both the price increase and dispatch changes depend on the mix of generation technologies and fuels in the region available for dispatch, although the consumer response to higher prices is the dominant effect. We estimate that the instantaneous imposition of a price of $35 per metric ton on CO2 emissions would lead to a 10% reduction in CO2 emissions in PJM and MISO at a price elasticity of -0.1. Reductions in ERCOT would be about one-third as large. Thus, a price on CO2 emissions that has been shown in earlier workto stimulate investment in new generation technology also provides significant CO2 reductions before new technology is deployed at large scale.
如果发电商必须通过隐性或显性机制为二氧化碳排放付费，那么输送的电力价格将会上涨。在短期内（在发电机群显著变化之前），对二氧化碳排放征收高额费用会产生两个主要影响。其一，消费者会根据其需求价格弹性，通过减少购买量来应对价格上涨。其二，二氧化碳排放价格会改变现有发电商的经济调度顺序，这取决于它们的二氧化碳排放量和边际燃料价格。价格上涨和调度变化都取决于该地区可供调度的发电技术和燃料组合，不过消费者对更高价格的反应是主要影响因素。我们估计，对二氧化碳排放立即征收每吨35美元的价格，在需求价格弹性为-0.1的情况下，将使PJM和MISO的二氧化碳排放量减少10%。ERCOT的减排量约为其三分之一。因此，早期研究表明能刺激新一代技术投资的二氧化碳排放价格，在大规模部署新技术之前也能大幅减少二氧化碳排放。
