Newcomer Adam, Apt Jay
Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center, Tepper School of Business and Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 15213, USA.
Environ Sci Technol. 2009 Jun 1;43(11):3995-4001. doi: 10.1021/es801729r.
Large numbers of proposed new coal power generators in the United States have been canceled, and some states have prohibited new coal power generators. We examine the effects on the U.S. electric power system of banning the construction of coal-fired electricity generators, which has been proposed as a means to reduce U.S. CO2 emissions. The model simulates load growth, resource planning, and economic dispatch of the Midwest Independent Transmission System Operator (ISO), Inc., Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and PJM under a ban on new coal generation and uses an economic dispatch model to calculate the resulting changes in dispatch order, CO2 emissions, and fuel use under three near-term (until 2030) future electric power sector scenarios. A national ban on new coal-fired power plants does not lead to CO2 reductions of the scale required under proposed federal legislation such as Lieberman-Warner but would greatly increase the fraction of time when natural gas sets the price of electricity, even with aggressive wind and demand response policies.
美国大量拟建的新型煤电机组已被取消,一些州也禁止新建煤电机组。我们研究了禁止建设燃煤发电机组对美国电力系统的影响,这一举措被提议作为减少美国二氧化碳排放的一种手段。该模型模拟了在禁止新建煤炭发电的情况下,中西部独立输电系统运营商(ISO)、得克萨斯州电力可靠性委员会(ERCOT)和PJM的负荷增长、资源规划及经济调度,并使用经济调度模型计算在三种近期(至2030年)未来电力部门情景下调度顺序、二氧化碳排放和燃料使用的相应变化。即使有积极的风能和需求响应政策,全国范围内禁止新建燃煤电厂也不会带来如利伯曼 - 沃纳等联邦立法提案所要求规模的二氧化碳减排,但会大幅增加天然气决定电价的时间比例。