Kolte Ida Viktoria, Skinhøj Peter, Keiding Niels, Lynge Elsebeth
Institute of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Denmark.
Scand J Infect Dis. 2008;40(6-7):538-46. doi: 10.1080/00365540701870903.
The spread of H5N1 influenza and the similarity between this avian virus and the Spanish flu virus causes fear of a new influenza pandemic, but data from the Spanish flu may also be of guidance in planning for preventive measures. Using data on influenza cases, influenza deaths and total deaths for Denmark and for Danish towns from 1917 to 1921, and population data from the 1916 and 1921 censuses, we analysed incident cases, cumulative, age-specific and age-standardized rates. Overall, more than 900,000 persons contracted flu during the y 1918-1920, and 1 out of 50 patients died from the disease. An early wave of the flu occurred in the capital and major towns, but not in peripheral towns. Influenza incidence in 1918 peaked at age 5-15 y, closely followed by the age groups 1-5 y and 15-65 y, but the influenza mortality was highest in the age groups 0-1 y and 15-65 y, with a peak mortality at age 20-34 y producing a W curve for mortality by age. The background for the better outcome in children aged 1-15 y as well as for the disease immunity in the elderly population should be further investigated.
H5N1流感的传播以及这种禽流感病毒与西班牙流感病毒的相似性引发了人们对新的流感大流行的担忧,但西班牙流感的数据也可能为预防措施的规划提供指导。利用1917年至1921年丹麦及丹麦各城镇的流感病例、流感死亡人数和总死亡人数数据,以及1916年和1921年人口普查的人口数据,我们分析了发病病例、累积发病率、年龄别发病率和年龄标准化发病率。总体而言,在1918年至1920年期间,超过90万人感染了流感,每50名患者中就有1人死于该病。流感的早期浪潮出现在首都和主要城镇,但周边城镇没有出现。1918年流感发病率在5至15岁年龄段达到峰值,紧随其后的是1至5岁和15至65岁年龄组,但流感死亡率在0至1岁和15至65岁年龄组最高,20至34岁年龄组死亡率达到峰值,形成了年龄别死亡率的W曲线。1至15岁儿童较好的预后以及老年人群体的疾病免疫力的背景应进一步研究。