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潜伏期延迟对生态流行病学系统动态的影响——一项理论研究

Impacts of incubation delay on the dynamics of an eco-epidemiological system--a theoretical study.

作者信息

Bairagi N, Sarkar R R, Chattopadhyay J

机构信息

Centre for Mathematical Biology and Ecology, Department of Mathematics, Jadavpur University, Kolkata, 700032, India.

出版信息

Bull Math Biol. 2008 Oct;70(7):2017-38. doi: 10.1007/s11538-008-9337-y. Epub 2008 Jul 31.

Abstract

Parasite and predator play significant role in trophic interaction, productivity and stability of an ecosystem. In this paper, we have studied a host-parasite-predator interaction that incorporates incubation delay. How the qualitative and quantitative behaviors of the system alter with the incubation delay have been discussed both from mathematical and biological point of views. It is observed that for a lower infection rate, the system is stable for all delays; but for a higher infection rate, there exists a threshold value of the delay above which the system is unstable and below which the system is stable leading to the persistence of all the species. Also, the instability arising from the incubation delay may be controlled if somehow the growth rate of predator population is increased. Numerical studies have also been performed to illustrate different analytical findings.

摘要

寄生虫和捕食者在生态系统的营养相互作用、生产力和稳定性方面发挥着重要作用。在本文中,我们研究了一个包含潜伏期的宿主 - 寄生虫 - 捕食者相互作用模型。从数学和生物学的角度讨论了系统的定性和定量行为如何随潜伏期而变化。可以观察到,对于较低的感染率,系统在所有延迟情况下都是稳定的;但对于较高的感染率,存在一个延迟阈值,高于该阈值系统不稳定,低于该阈值系统稳定,所有物种得以持续存在。此外,如果以某种方式提高捕食者种群的增长率,由潜伏期引起的不稳定性可能会得到控制。还进行了数值研究以说明不同的分析结果。

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