Efficiency dilution: long-term exergy conversion trends in Japan.

This analysis characterizes century-scale trends in exergy efficiency in Japan. Exergy efficiency captures the degree to which energy inputs (such as coal) are converted into useful work (such as electricity or power to move a vehicle). This approach enables the estimation of net efficiencies which aggregate different technologies. Sectors specifically analyzed are electricity generation, transport, steel production, and residential space heating. One result is that the aggregate exergy efficiency of the Japanese economy declined slightly over the last half of the 20th century, reaching a high of around 38% in the late 1970s and falling to around 33% by 1998. The explanation for this is that while individual technologies improved dramatically over the century, less exergy-efficient ones were progressively adopted, yielding a net stabilization or decline. In the electricity sector, for instance, adoption of hydropower was followed by fossil-fired plants and then by nuclear power, each technology being successively less efficient from an exergy perspective. The underlying dynamic of this trend is analogous to declining ore grades in the mining sector. Increasing demand for exergy services requires expended utilization of resources from which it is more difficult to extract utility (e.g., falling water versus coal). We term this phenomenon efficiency dilution.