Auvert Bertran, Marseille Elliot, Korenromp Eline L, Lloyd-Smith James, Sitta Remi, Taljaard Dirk, Pretorius Carel, Williams Brian, Kahn James G
Hopital Paul Brousse, INSERM U687, Villejuif, France.
PLoS One. 2008 Aug 6;3(8):e2679. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0002679.
BACKGROUND: Trials in Africa indicate that medical adult male circumcision (MAMC) reduces the risk of HIV by 60%. MAMC may avert 2 to 8 million HIV infections over 20 years in sub-Saharan Africa and cost less than treating those who would have been infected. This paper estimates the financial and human resources required to roll out MAMC and the net savings due to reduced infections. METHODS: We developed a model which included costing, demography and HIV epidemiology. We used it to investigate 14 countries in sub-Saharan Africa where the prevalence of male circumcision was lower than 80% and HIV prevalence among adults was higher than 5%, in addition to Uganda and the Nyanza province in Kenya. We assumed that the roll-out would take 5 years and lead to an MC prevalence among adult males of 85%. We also assumed that surgery would be done as it was in the trials. We calculated public program cost, number of full-time circumcisers and net costs or savings when adjusting for averted HIV treatments. Costs were in USD, discounted to 2007. 95% percentile intervals (95% PI) were estimated by Monte Carlo simulations. RESULTS: In the first 5 years the number of circumcisers needed was 2 282 (95% PI: 2 018 to 2 959), or 0.24 (95% PI: 0.21 to 0.31) per 10,000 adults. In years 6-10, the number of circumcisers needed fell to 513 (95% PI: 452 to 664). The estimated 5-year cost of rolling out MAMC in the public sector was $919 million (95% PI: 726 to 1 245). The cumulative net cost over the first 10 years was $672 million (95% PI: 437 to 1,021) and over 20 years there were net savings of $2.3 billion (95% PI: 1.4 to 3.4). CONCLUSION: A rapid roll-out of MAMC in sub-Saharan Africa requires substantial funding and a high number of circumcisers for the first five years. These investments are justified by MAMC's substantial health benefits and the savings accrued by averting future HIV infections. Lower ongoing costs and continued care savings suggest long-term sustainability.
背景:非洲的试验表明,成年男性医学包皮环切术(MAMC)可将感染艾滋病毒的风险降低60%。在撒哈拉以南非洲地区,MAMC在20年内可能避免200万至800万例艾滋病毒感染,且成本低于治疗那些本会被感染的人。本文估计了推广MAMC所需的财政和人力资源以及因感染减少而产生的净节省。 方法:我们开发了一个模型,其中包括成本核算、人口统计学和艾滋病毒流行病学。我们用它来调查撒哈拉以南非洲的14个国家,这些国家的男性包皮环切术普及率低于80%,成年人中的艾滋病毒流行率高于5%,此外还包括乌干达和肯尼亚的尼扬扎省。我们假设推广将需要5年时间,并使成年男性中的包皮环切术普及率达到85%。我们还假设手术将按照试验中的方式进行。我们计算了公共项目成本、全职包皮环切手术实施者的数量以及在调整避免的艾滋病毒治疗后产生的净成本或节省。成本以美元计,贴现至2007年。通过蒙特卡洛模拟估计了95%百分位数区间(95% PI)。 结果:在最初5年中,所需的包皮环切手术实施者数量为2282名(95% PI:2018至2959名),即每10000名成年人中有0.24名(95% PI:0.21至0.31名)。在第6至10年,所需的包皮环切手术实施者数量降至513名(95% PI:452至664名)。在公共部门推广MAMC的估计5年成本为9.19亿美元(95% PI:7.26至12.45亿美元)。头10年的累计净成本为6.72亿美元(95% PI:4.37至10.21亿美元),20年期间有23亿美元的净节省(95% PI:14至34亿美元)。 结论:在撒哈拉以南非洲迅速推广MAMC在头五年需要大量资金和大量包皮环切手术实施者。MAMC带来的巨大健康益处以及避免未来艾滋病毒感染所产生的节省证明了这些投资的合理性。持续较低的成本和持续的护理节省表明具有长期可持续性。
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