United States Agency for International Development, Washington, District of Columbia, USA.
PLoS Med. 2011 Nov;8(11):e1001132. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001132. Epub 2011 Nov 29.
BACKGROUND: There is strong evidence showing that voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) reduces HIV incidence in men. To inform the VMMC policies and goals of 13 priority countries in eastern and southern Africa, we estimate the impact and cost of scaling up adult VMMC using updated, country-specific data. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We use the Decision Makers' Program Planning Tool (DMPPT) to model the impact and cost of scaling up adult VMMC in Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, Zimbabwe, and Nyanza Province in Kenya. We use epidemiologic and demographic data from recent household surveys for each country. The cost of VMMC ranges from US$65.85 to US$95.15 per VMMC performed, based on a cost assessment of VMMC services aligned with the World Health Organization's considerations of models for optimizing volume and efficiencies. Results from the DMPPT models suggest that scaling up adult VMMC to reach 80% coverage in the 13 countries by 2015 would entail performing 20.34 million circumcisions between 2011 and 2015 and an additional 8.42 million between 2016 and 2025 (to maintain the 80% coverage). Such a scale-up would result in averting 3.36 million new HIV infections through 2025. In addition, while the model shows that this scale-up would cost a total of US$2 billion between 2011 and 2025, it would result in net savings (due to averted treatment and care costs) amounting to US$16.51 billion. CONCLUSIONS: This study suggests that rapid scale-up of VMMC in eastern and southern Africa is warranted based on the likely impact on the region's HIV epidemics and net savings. Scaling up of safe VMMC in eastern and southern Africa will lead to a substantial reduction in HIV infections in the countries and lower health system costs through averted HIV care costs.
背景:有充分的证据表明,男性自愿接受医学包皮环切术(VMMC)可以降低男性的 HIV 感染率。为了为东部和南部非洲 13 个重点国家的 VMMC 政策和目标提供信息,我们利用最新的、特定国家的数据来估计扩大成年 VMMC 的影响和成本。
方法和发现:我们使用决策者规划程序工具(DMPPT)来模拟在博茨瓦纳、莱索托、马拉维、莫桑比克、纳米比亚、卢旺达、南非、斯威士兰、坦桑尼亚、乌干达、赞比亚、津巴布韦以及肯尼亚的尼亚萨省扩大成年 VMMC 的影响和成本。我们使用每个国家最近的家庭调查中的流行病学和人口数据。根据与世界卫生组织考虑的优化数量和效率模型一致的 VMMC 服务成本评估,VMMC 的成本为每次 VMMC 65.85 至 95.15 美元。DMPPT 模型的结果表明,到 2015 年,在 13 个国家将成年 VMMC 扩大到 80%的覆盖率,将需要在 2011 年至 2015 年期间进行 2034 万例包皮环切术,并在 2016 年至 2025 年期间再进行 842 万例包皮环切术(以维持 80%的覆盖率)。这种规模的扩大将导致到 2025 年避免 336 万例新的 HIV 感染。此外,虽然该模型显示,到 2025 年,这一规模的扩大将需要在 2011 年至 2025 年期间总共投入 20 亿美元,但它将带来 165.1 亿美元的净节省(由于避免了治疗和护理费用)。
结论:这项研究表明,鉴于 VMMC 对该地区 HIV 流行的可能影响和净节省,在东部和南部非洲迅速扩大 VMMC 是合理的。在东部和南部非洲扩大安全的 VMMC 将大大减少各国的 HIV 感染,并通过避免 HIV 护理费用来降低卫生系统成本。
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