Yang Guo-Jing, Vounatsou Penelope, Tanner Marcel, Zhou Xiao-Nong, Utzinger Jürg
Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Wuxi 214064, People's Republic of China.
Geospat Health. 2006 Nov;1(1):85-92. doi: 10.4081/gh.2006.283.
Political and health sector reforms, along with demographic, environmental and socio-economic transformations in the face of global warming, could cause the re-emergence of schistosomiasis in areas where transmission has been successfully interrupted and its emergence in previously non-endemic areas in China. In the present study, we used geographic information systems and remote sensing techniques to predict potential habitats of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host snail of Schistosoma japonicum. Focussing on the Hongze, Baima and Gaoyou lakes in Jiangsu province in eastern China, we developed a model using the normalized difference vegetation index, a tasseled-cap transformed wetness index, and flooding areas to predict snail habitats at a small scale. Data were extracted from two Landsat images, one taken during a typical dry year and the other obtained three years later during a flooding event. An area of approximately 163.6 km2 was predicted as potential O. hupensis habitats around the three lakes, which accounts for 4.3% of the estimated snail habitats in China. In turn, these predicted snail habitats are risk areas for transmission of schistosomiasis, and hence illustrate the scale of the possible impact of climate change and other ecological transformations. The generated risk map can be used by health policy makers to guide mitigation policies targetting the possible spread of O. hupensis, and with the aim of containing the transmission of S. japonicum.
面对全球变暖，政治和卫生部门改革以及人口、环境和社会经济转型，可能导致血吸虫病在中国已成功阻断传播的地区重新出现，并在以前的非流行地区出现。在本研究中，我们使用地理信息系统和遥感技术来预测日本血吸虫中间宿主钉螺的潜在栖息地。聚焦于中国东部江苏省的洪泽湖、白马湖和高邮湖，我们利用归一化植被指数、缨帽变换湿度指数和洪水区域开发了一个模型，以在小尺度上预测钉螺栖息地。数据取自两幅陆地卫星图像，一幅拍摄于典型干旱年份，另一幅在三年后的一次洪水事件期间获取。三个湖泊周围约163.6平方公里的区域被预测为潜在的钉螺栖息地，占中国估计钉螺栖息地的4.3%。反过来，这些预测的钉螺栖息地是血吸虫病传播的风险区域，因此说明了气候变化和其他生态转型可能产生影响的规模。生成的风险地图可被卫生政策制定者用于指导针对钉螺可能扩散的缓解政策，旨在控制日本血吸虫的传播。
