Predicting patterns of mating and potential hybridization from pollinator behavior.

Hybridization in flowering plants is determined in part by the rate at which animal pollinators move between species and by the effectiveness of such movements in transferring pollen. Pollinator behavior can also influence hybrid fitness by determining receipt and export of pollen. We incorporated information on pollinator effectiveness and visitation behavior into a simulation model that predicts pollen transfer between Ipomopsis aggregata, Ipomopsis tenuituba, and hybrids. These predictions were compared with estimates of pollen transfer derived from movement of fluorescent dyes in experimental plant arrays. Interspecific pollen transfer was relatively uncommon in these arrays, whereas transfer between hybrids and the parental species was at least as common as conspecific transfer. Backcrossing was asymmetrical; I. aggregata flowers frequently received mixed loads of hybrid and conspecific pollen. The simulation suggests that these patterns of pollen transfer are largely explained by the visitation sequences of hummingbird and insect pollinators, with little contribution from mechanical isolation. Pollen receipt by hybrids exceeded that of both parental species in a year when pollinators preferred to visit F(1) and F(2) hybrids and was intermediate in another year when they preferred to visit I. aggregata. This suggests that natural variation in pollination may produce spatiotemporal variation in hybridization and hybrid fitness.